Paxton Holds Edge Over Cornyn in Latest Texas Runoff Polling

An exclusive survey commissioned by the Senate Majority PAC reveals that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is currently leading incumbent Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) in the upcoming May Republican runoff election.

The poll of likely GOP runoff voters placed Paxton ahead with 47% support compared to Cornyn's 42%. Furthermore, Paxton appears to have a more dedicated base, with 38% of voters identifying as his strong supporters, versus 30% for Senator Cornyn.

Examining the Runoff Electorate

The demographic surveyed for this runoff is heavily skewed toward the conservative wing of the party. Eighty-four percent of respondents identified as supporters of the MAGA movement.

Additionally, 69% described themselves as strong Republicans, and an overwhelming 94% stated they were certain to participate in the late May contest. This high level of certainty suggests a highly engaged and motivated voting bloc.

Turnout Enthusiasm Favors Paxton

Voter enthusiasm metrics suggest a potential turnout advantage for the Attorney General. Eighty-five percent of Paxton’s backers rated their likelihood to vote a perfect 10 out of 10.

In contrast, only 70% of Cornyn’s supporters gave themselves the highest likelihood rating. This disparity points toward greater mobilization among Paxton’s base heading into the runoff.

Incumbent Faces Softer Personal Standing

Senator Cornyn, a two-decade incumbent, is facing challenges regarding his personal favorability among these specific voters. Paxton currently holds a net positive rating of 56% favorable to 43% unfavorable.

Cornyn’s standing is slightly negative, with 47% viewing him favorably and 51% viewing him unfavorably. The poll suggests the current dynamics are difficult to alter, as presenting voters with mixed information about both candidates barely shifted the overall margin.

Vulnerabilities and Potential Endorsements

One potential path for Cornyn emerged only when voters heard exclusively negative details about Paxton, pushing Cornyn ahead 48% to 41%. However, this advantage disappeared once criticisms of Cornyn were also introduced, reverting the lead back to Paxton at 47% to 41%.

GOP voters showed particular sensitivity to attacks concerning Cornyn’s past stances on gun control, immigration, and "amnesty," as well as his votes supporting certain nominees put forth by former President Joe Biden.

The impact of a potential endorsement from President Donald Trump appears limited. In split-sample testing, Paxton maintained his lead regardless of whether Trump backed Cornyn or remained neutral.

Campaign Reactions and Context

Lauren French, a spokesperson for the Senate Majority PAC, commented on the findings: “John Cornyn is an incumbent senator who is already losing, in an electorate structurally hostile to him, with a negative personal image he cannot repair.” She concluded, “The numbers don’t show a candidate who is struggling. They show a candidate who is losing.”

Cornyn’s campaign opted not to provide a comment regarding the poll results. National Republicans, however, have publicly supported the incumbent.

Joanna Rodriguez, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, stated, “John Cornyn is the only candidate in this race with a proven record of showing up to champion President Trump’s agenda in the Senate and is the best candidate to beat radical James Talarico.”

Runoff Context and General Election Outlook

The primary election in March did not yield a majority winner, necessitating this late May runoff. Cornyn benefits from established institutional advantages, including superior fundraising capabilities and backing from establishment Republicans.

Paxton, conversely, has successfully harnessed grassroots energy, which the poll suggests is now consolidating behind him. The winner of this primary will advance to face Democratic state Representative James Talarico in the November general election.

Poll Methodology Note

The survey included 600 likely Republican runoff voters and was conducted between March 19 and March 23 through a combination of live phone interviews and text-to-web responses. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.