The contest to challenge incumbent Senator Susan Collins in Maine has intensified, with recent polling data suggesting a major shift in the Democratic primary race. Graham Platner has emerged with a substantial lead over his primary rival, Governor Janet Mills, according to the latest survey results.

Democratic Primary Heats Up Between Platner and Mills

The Democratic primary is shaping up to be a competitive battle, despite Maine generally favoring Democrats, as evidenced by backing Kamala Harris by about 7 percentage points in 2024. Senator Collins has historically secured victories due to her high personal popularity and record of bipartisanship, something uncommon in today's polarized environment.

Latest Polling Data Favors Platner

An Impact Research poll, released via X by gubernatorial candidate Troy Jackson, showed Platner with a commanding lead. The survey questioned 500 likely voters between March 19 and 23.

  • Platner garnered support from 66 percent of respondents.
  • Mills received support from 28 percent of those polled.

Jackson stated, “A new poll reveals what Mainers on the ground already know: @grahamformaine will be our party’s nominee for U.S. Senate.” He added that Platner understands the need to “upset the status quo.”

Contrasting Campaign Strategies and Attacks

The primary has grown increasingly contentious as the June 9 primary date approaches. Platner’s supporters emphasize his background as a veteran and oyster farmer, positioning him as a new generation of leadership compared to the 78-year-old Mills.

Conversely, Mills’ backers argue her established success in statewide elections makes her the safer choice for the general election against Collins. Mills has recently targeted Platner with attack advertisements focusing on past controversial content.

Platner Addresses Past Controversies

Mills’ ads have highlighted old Reddit posts made by Platner concerning sexual assault victims, labeling him a “bully.” Furthermore, the ads brought attention to a tattoo resembling the Nazi SS symbol, the Totenkopf.

Platner responded to the tattoo revelation, stating, “I absolutely would not have gone through life having this on my chest if I knew that—and to insinuate that I did is disgusting. I am already planning to get this removed.” Regarding his past internet comments, he expressed horror, saying he did not recognize the man who wrote them.

Mills has defended her advertising strategy. She told WMTW, “My opponent has minimized sexual assault and blamed survivors for their rape. That's appalling at any age. He was an adult when he made those statements.”

General Election Outlook and Other Polls

Forecasters consider the general election race to unseat Collins a toss-up, with both The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifying it as such. Democrats view flipping this seat as essential for securing a Senate majority.

Other recent polls have shown varying degrees of Platner’s lead:

  • An Emerson poll showed Platner with a 27-point lead over Mills among likely voters surveyed March 21-23.
  • A Quantus Insights poll from early March showed Platner ahead by a more modest 5 points.

In hypothetical general election matchups, the Emerson poll indicated Platner leading Collins by seven points, while Mills led by three. The Quantus Insights poll showed Platner up seven points against Collins, with Mills up two points over Collins.

Platner’s Vision for Victory

Platner expressed confidence in his broad appeal, stating, “We are going to win the youth vote. We are going to win seniors. We're building a movement to deliver a huge victory in June, to win in November, and show this country the way forward.” He also pointed out that the Impact Research firm has ties to the DSCC and SMP, suggesting a significant lead.