MLB betting expert Josh Inglis has released his top home run prop bets and picks for Tuesday, March 31. Inglis is focusing on two early selections and one afternoon pick, building on a successful night that included a ninth-inning home run prediction in Toronto.

Top Home Run Prop Predictions for March 31

Brent Rooker vs. Jose Suarez

Brent Rooker is a primary focus for an anytime home run bet today. Although Rooker has yet to hit a home run this season, his underlying power metrics are significant, suggesting positive regression is due.

Rooker faces Braves spot starter Jose Suarez, who is returning from back surgery. Suarez posted the second-worst HR/9 rate among starters with 60 or more innings last season, presenting an exploitable matchup.

Inglis notes Rooker’s legitimate 40-homer potential, placing him in an elite power tier. Furthermore, Suarez is essentially being stretched into a starting role due to Spencer Strider's injury, increasing the risk associated with his performance.

Jake Burger's Favorable Spot

Jake Burger is another strong candidate for a home run prop bet on Tuesday. He is slated to hit out of the cleanup position in the lineup.

Burger has a history of success against his likely opponent, going 3-for-7 with one home run in his career against that pitcher. While small sample sizes in batter vs. pitcher data are usually discounted, this history is noteworthy.

Ideal Environmental Conditions for Power

The weather conditions for Tuesday's games are highly conducive to home runs across the board. Temperatures are expected to be around 80 degrees.

Crucially, there will be 17-mph winds blowing out toward left-center field. This combination of warm weather and strong tailwinds creates a powerful setup for fly balls to clear the fence.

Expert Betting Philosophy

Josh Inglis, a specialist in MLB player props and derivative markets since joining Covers in 2019, emphasizes betting early to secure better odds before the public moves the market.

Inglis advises bettors to maintain multiple sportsbook accounts to ensure access to the best available odds for their wagers. His analysis has been featured on networks including TSN, VSiN, and the BetMGM Network.