Iran Remains a Formidable Foe After Sustained Attacks

Since the coordinated war against Iran commenced on February 28, the Trump administration has asserted that the Islamic Republic's military capabilities have been nearly "obliterated." However, more than a month into intense U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, Iran persists as a resilient adversary.

The Iranian military continues to execute a steady stream of attacks targeting Israel and neighboring Gulf Arab states. This ongoing retaliation suggests that Tehran is adapting its strategy rather than simply collapsing under pressure.

Assessing the Decline in Iranian Firepower

Officials from both the U.S. and Israel have frequently cited a significant reduction in Iran's ballistic missile launches as evidence that their efforts to destroy stockpiles and launchers are succeeding. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine reported on March 4 that Iran’s ballistic missile shots had decreased by 86%, with one-way attack drone shots down by 73%.

Hegseth later stated that the volume of ballistic missile attacks had dropped by "90% since the start of the conflict.” On Tuesday, Hegseth noted Iran fired its "lowest number" of missiles and drones in the preceding 24 hours. President Trump supported this assessment on Truth Social, claiming that "Iran has been, essentially, decimated."

Independent Data and Strategic Interpretation

Independent tracking data from Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) generally supports the narrative of a slowdown. On the second day of the war, Iran conducted nearly 100 strikes, which dropped to 53 the following day and remained near that level for several days.

ACLED data covering the three and a half weeks since March 6 shows Iran has not exceeded 50 strikes on any single day. For the last three weeks, Iran has averaged about 30 strikes daily, though the tempo has increased at various points.

Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, questions whether this decline reflects capacity limits or a deliberate strategic choice. "Their strategy is to try to cause sustained pain and to drive up the costs of the war for the U.S.," Grieco noted.

The Cost of Interception and Hidden Arsenals

Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at CSIS, highlighted the immense cost borne by the U.S. and Israel. "We are vaporizing billions of dollars in long-range anti-missile defenses, which are scarce national resources," Karako stated.

Karako warned that the U.S. and Israel risk exhausting their interceptors before eliminating the entirety of Iran's mobile launchers and missile stockpiles—a task proving "maddeningly difficult." Experts suggest that at least half of Iran's arsenal is stored in hardened facilities inaccessible to air power.

Farzin Nadimi of The Washington Institute suggested that the U.S. and Israel may have underestimated the complexity of Iran's storage and operational capabilities. He added, "They have been able to strike targets more efficiently and therefore use fewer missiles to achieve the same result."

Iran's Evolving Targeting Strategy

Analysts observe that Tehran appears to have refined its targeting, moving away from what Hegseth called "flailing recklessly" against civilian and energy infrastructure across the Arabian Peninsula. Instead, Iran seems focused on efficiency to impose a settlement on the U.S.

Iran has recently focused strikes on nearby states like the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. Last week, Iran targeted a Saudi air base with drones and ballistic missiles, resulting in injuries to over two dozen U.S. troops and damage to aircraft.

Assaf Orion, a retired Israeli brigadier general, explained that in this asymmetrical conflict, Iran prioritizes attacking the global economy to coerce the U.S. into stopping the war. He added that this objective is currently more important to Tehran than attacking Israel, which views the conflict as existential.

Future Outlook and Remaining Capacity

It remains uncertain how long Iran can maintain its current level of retaliation, as U.S. and Israeli intelligence regarding Iran's exact missile and drone inventory is limited. Experts agree, however, that Iran likely retains thousands of inexpensive, locally manufactured drones capable of menacing U.S. allies.

Karako concluded that Iran appears structurally prepared for a prolonged conflict. "Iran built itself to be able to ride a war like this out," he stated. "It has been preparing for this."