The ongoing conflict in Iran has disrupted global energy markets, hitting African airlines particularly hard by exposing their heavy dependence on imported refined jet fuel. Carriers now face soaring costs and supply constraints, with the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) reporting that African airlines already paid 17% more for jet fuel than the global average before the war — a premium that is now expanding.

African Airlines Already Faced a 17% Fuel Premium Before the War

According to AFRAA, fuel represents between 30% and 40% of airline operating costs, meaning any increase directly threatens balance sheets. Even before the Iran crisis, African carriers struggled with structural disadvantages: higher procurement costs and weaker ability to absorb shocks. The current price surge is compounding thin margins, forcing airlines to introduce fuel surcharges that most cannot fully pass on to passengers,leaving them to absorb losses.

The 20% Oil Corridor Closure That Disrupted Hubs Like Nairobi and Addis Ababa

The Iran conflict effectively blocked a key global energy corridor through which about one-fifth of the world's oil and fuel previously flowed, as the source report notes. This closure has amplified supply diisruptions at major African hubs including Nairobi, Kenya, and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, where consistent jet fuel availability is critical for regional and international operations. Some airlines have already begun adjusting networks, cutting frequencies, and reviewing routes to manage rising costs and fuel uncertainty.

Dangote Refinery Steps In — But Can It Ease the Pressure?

In response to the crisis, hubs like Addis Ababa have tapped the Dangote Refinery in Nigeria, which is expected to play a growing role in supplying refined fuel across the region — including to Kenya, Ethiopia, and South Africa, according to the source. While this development could ease supply chain pressure in the short term, key questions remain: Can the Dangote refinery scale production quickly enough? And will it lower the cost premium that African airlines face, or merely stabilize supply? The source does not provide estimates of Dangote's current output or timeline for increased capacity.

Airlines Cut Frequencies as Cost Absorption Reaches Limits

Faced with soaring fuel costs and limited ability to raise fares, several airlines have begun trimming frequency on existing routes and reviewing their entire network structures.. The report points to consistent fuel availability concerns at hubs like Nairobi and Addis Ababa as a driver of these adjustments. Despite these pressures, AFRAA projects passenger demand growth of about 6% annually — outpacing many global markets — but sustained fuel shocks could severely weigh on profitability and connectivity, underscoring the need for Africa to secure its own fuel supply for a resilient aviation sector.