Iran Containment: Strategy for Post-Conflict Threat

Preventing the Islamic Republic of Iran from reconstituting itself as a threat is paramount. Since its establishment approximately 47 years ago, Iran has consistently demonstrated a commitment to regional dominance and the spread of radical Islamic ideologies.

The Risk of Iranian Reconstitution

Should the current conflict allow, Iran will likely prioritize rapid military recovery and capability expansion, including further development of its weapons programs. A key factor in this recovery is crude oil sales, which generated around $8 billion in revenue in 2025.

Circumventing Sanctions

Even with sanctions in place, Iranian crude oil exports facilitate barter agreements, particularly with Chinese companies involved in the production of military electronics and other essential equipment.

A Comprehensive Containment Strategy

The United States needs to implement a comprehensive containment strategy focused on securing marine traffic, curtailing Iranian crude exports, weakening its industrial base, and restricting the import of industrial and military equipment. These actions will hinder military rebuilding and potentially fuel domestic unrest due to economic hardship.

Addressing Oil Price Concerns

Concerns exist that cutting off Iranian crude exports could drive up global oil prices. However, Iran’s exports represent only 1.5% to 2% of global production (approximately 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day). Saudi Arabia possesses a reserve capacity of about 2.5 million BPD, capable of offsetting any supply reduction from Iran.

Targeted Infrastructure Disruption

Undermining Iran’s economy can be achieved through a selective campaign targeting fuels, electric, and civil infrastructure, alongside comparable industrial facilities. This approach avoids destroying critical infrastructure like oil and gas wells, desalination plants, and power plants, which would take years to rebuild.

Blocking Exports and Imports

Alternatives exist to halt Iranian crude exports and imports of gasoline, diesel, and other vital industrial commodities, creating conditions that could lead to state collapse.

Potential Military Actions

A combination of aerial attacks and limited ground action could disrupt Iranian exports while preserving key terminal equipment for a future government. Seizing or neutralizing the islands of Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs, or intercepting tankers bound for Iranian terminals, are also potential options.

Addressing GCC Security Concerns

While concerns exist about potential Iranian attacks on GCC energy infrastructure, Iran has already been attacking fuel storage, refining, and ports in the Gulf. A clear message from the U.S. and Gulf countries regarding reciprocal actions is needed.

A Humane Approach

Cutting off energy supplies without destroying core infrastructure may be the most responsible approach against a determined adversary potentially willing to escalate to extreme measures. The investments made thus far must not be wasted, and preventing Iran’s reconstitution as a threat remains the priority.

Michael Schwartz is an energy sector executive and former Gerhard R. Andlinger Visiting Professor in Energy and Environmental Studies at Princeton University.