The $30 million toe in the water

A new AP-NORC polling analysis has found that indepenents have grown increasingly unhappy with President Donald Trump during his second term, particularly those without a college degree.

The analysis, conducted by aggregating nearly two dozen AP-NORC polls conducted between July 2024 and April 2026, shows a steady decline among independents throughout Trump's second term.

His standing has also dropped among several small but important groups that moved toward him in the 2024 presidential election , including Black and Hispanic independents.

Why 4,000 unsold units became the prize

Independents without a college degree had a much more positive view of Trump than college-educated independents did during and just after the 2024 election, but that shifted in the first few months of his term.

Positive views of Trump among independents without a college degree fell from 48% in the months before he returned to office to 31% in polling conducted during Trump's first 100 days back in office.

Those warm views declined even further, to about one-quarter, during the government shutdown and the early months of 2026.

A familiar pattern from the 2019 crash

Americans without a college degree have long been a key part of Trump's coalition.

But Trump also won in 2024 by making gains among groups that tend to support Democrats, including Hispanic adults.

About 4 in 10 independent voters - 42% - voted for Trump in 2024, up from 37% in the 2020 presidential election.

Who is the unnamed buyer?

Trump's approval among Hispanic adults dropped quickly in his second term, falling as low as 15% during last fall's government shutdown before landing around one-quarter in the spring .

Younger independents also became less supportive of the president, while independents age 60 and older remained mostly stable.

The new analysis,which looks at Trump's favorability and presidential approval ratings, shows that once he took the helm, their views soured quickly.