IMF raises global growth forecast to 3.1% for 2026 but warns of AI and debt risks The International Monetary Fund upgraded its 2026 world growth forecast to 3.1% while warning about risks from the AI boom, rising debt and high oil prices. Growth remains uneven, with the US and China dominating AI demand. The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slightly upgraded its outlook for the world economy this year, while warning of growing risks from rising debt including the financial frenzy around artificial intelligence. IMF Upgrades Global Growth Outlook For 2026The IMF now expects the global economy to grow at a 3.1 per cent pace in 2026, up from its July forecast of 3.0 per cent and well below the 3.5 per cent expansion in 2025. Growth in 2027 should rebound to 3.4 per cent, the IMF said in its latest Economic Outlook. The report was released as world economic and financial leaders gathered in Bangkok for the fall meetings of the IMF and World Bank.The forecasts assume a nearly 41 per cent increase in oil prices this year, averaging $96 a barrel. They also assume that shipments of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz will resume by March and that the boom in AI demand will moderate. Growth in the United States is expected to remain steady at 2.3 per cent in both 2026 and 2027.Collectively, advanced economies will grow 2.1 per cent this year, up from 2.0 per cent in 2025, before slowing to 1.9 per cent growth next year. Global inflation is foreseen at 4.7 per cent in 2026, falling to 4.1 per cent in 2027. The boom in artificial intelligence is offsetting damage from sharply higher prices for oil and gas, IMF economists say, but it also carries risks.Its benefits are not shared equally: the US and China account for more than three-quarters of net demand for imports of computer chips and other AI-related equipment, the report said. Growth is increasingly concentrated, with 32 countries accounting for 95 per cent of global growth, compared with 54 countries as of April. Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF director of research, told reporters in Bangkok that the outlook is highly uneven.Growth Reallocated Amid War Supply Shock RisksThe report says the global economy is not simply slowing or accelerating; rather, growth is being reallocated across countries according to their exposure to the war-induced supply shock and AI-related demand strength. Athanasios Vamvakidis, deputy director at the IMF Monetary and Capital Markets Department, said an AI-related correction in stock markets is just one of the risks. Rising bond yields are another evolving problem, along with cyberthreats that could disrupt financial systems, he said.Underscoring such concerns, sell-offs of AI-related shares swept through Asia on Tuesday, with South Korea Kospi sinking as much as 7 per cent before it closed 5.5 per cent lower. AI effects on employment are another worry. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva described it as a slow moving tsunami, but a tsunami nonetheless.She said the impact over time on jobs globally is estimated to be around 40 per cent, with jobs either augmented, downgraded or eliminated, and that some of this impact is already being seen. Georgieva is urging countries to do a better job of improving their national finances and taming mounting levels of debt. That is especially crucial at a time of high borrowing costs, Tenreyro said.Developing Economies Face Slower Growth From Energy CostsCountries somewhat insulated from the energy shocks of the Iran war and benefiting from rapid adoption of AI are managing to keep growth on track. But developing economies and emerging markets more vulnerable to higher costs for oil and gas will see growth slow to 3.7 per cent this year from 4.5 per cent in 2025, the report says. It forecasts they will regain momentum next year, expanding at a 4.4 per cent annual pace.The situation is much worse in the Middle East and Central Asia, where those regions economies are expected to contract this year before recovering to a 6.3 per cent rate of growth in 2027. The 21 European countries that share the euro currency are expected to grow by a meager 1.1 per cent this year and 1.2 per cent in 2027.China And India Growth Forecasts For This YearChina, the world No. 2 economy, is expected to expand 4.5 per cent this year, down from 5 per cent in 2025, in line with the government official target. India is once again forecast to be the world fastest-growing major economy, advancing at a 7 per cent clip, down from a sizzling 7.7 per cent last year. The IMF is a 191-nation lending organization that works to promote economic growth and financial stability and to reduce global poverty.At the meetings in Bangkok, finance ministers and central bank governors will assess the state of the world economy and discuss strategies to support financial stability and sustained growth. Associated Press journalists Haruka Nuga and Tian Macleod Ji contributed to this report.