Tesla is facing significant headwinds as its strategic pivot from electric vehicles (EVs) toward artificial intelligence and humanoid robots strains its core automotive business. The company recently recorded a four-year low in U.S. sales earlier this year, with no immediate signs pointing toward a recovery.

Investor Concern and Analyst Warnings

This downturn is visibly impacting Tesla's stock performance, which has already declined nearly 20 percent year-to-date. Even staunch long-term investors, who have supported the company's valuation exceeding $1 trillion despite weakening financials, are reportedly growing uneasy.

Financial institutions are echoing this concern. HSBC stock analyst Mike Tyndall recently reaffirmed his initial 'reduce' rating on Tesla shares set at the beginning of the year.

Projected Share Price Collapse

According to reports from The Street, Tyndall anticipates a severe drop in Tesla's stock value over the next twelve months. He forecasts shares falling from the current approximate price of $365 down to $131.

This projection represents an enormous potential wipeout of over 60 percent, contrasting sharply with the stock's recent high near $480 just last year. Tyndall attributes this outlook to mounting pressure within the highly competitive EV sector.

Challenges in the EV Market and Robotaxi Ambitions

The analyst cited intensifying competition and increasing market regionalization, particularly in Europe and China, as major threats. Furthermore, Tyndall suggested that the company's estimates for global growth opportunities might be overly optimistic.

Beyond slowing EV sales, Tesla is encountering difficulties scaling production for its two-seater Cybercab. This vehicle is crucial to CEO Elon Musk's vision of launching a comprehensive robotaxi service.

Regulatory Hurdles for Autonomous Driving

Officials informed the Wall Street Journal that mass production of the Cybercab is slated to commence next month, marking a critical test of Tesla's transition away from a traditional automaker.

Simultaneously, the company is struggling to secure international approval for its advanced driver assistance feature, misleadingly named Full Self-Driving. A key regulatory decision is pending in the Netherlands.

If approved there, the rest of the European Union could potentially follow later this summer, assuming the company's timeline holds true. However, as noted by Electrek, this approval is far from guaranteed.

Imminent Delivery Data and Future Outlook

A denial of the application in the Netherlands could foreshadow further difficulties for Musk's autonomous driving goals outside the United States. Attention is now focused on Tesla's first-quarter delivery figures, due out on Thursday.

The company faces immense pressure to meet Wall Street expectations, which anticipate a slight year-over-year rebound in EV sales. International rivals continue to erode Tesla's former market dominance.

Tesla is heavily relying on its humanoid robot and robotaxi service to reverse course before a potential stock collapse. The article concludes that the struggling car business alone may not be sufficient to secure the company's future.