Gas prices expected to rise 10 cents a litre before Thanksgiving despite G7 oil release Gas prices are forecast to keep climbing despite the G7 releasing 100 million barrels of emergency oil, with increases of up to 25 cents a litre expected by late October. Gas prices could continue going up in the coming weeks despite G7 countries vowing to release millions of barrels of oil and fuel products. Dan McTeague, president of the advocacy group Canadians for Affordable Energy, told CTV's Your Morning on Monday that the usual seasonal decline will not happen this year. At this time of year, we usually see gasoline dip below its summer value price, McTeague said. Not just because of the switchover from summer to winter gasoline, but demand for gasoline tends to fall. Not this time. McTeague predicts gas prices could continue increasing by 10 cents a litre between now and Thanksgiving on Oct. 12.Gas Prices Expected to Rise FurtherAfter that, he expects prices could rise as much as 10 to 15 cents a litre by the third week of October. We have never seen such a loss or such a concern about the lag and inability to meet world demand, McTeague said. That is one of the reasons why I think prices have a tendency to look at going much higher than we are seeing today.Group of Seven nations announced on Friday that they would release 100 million barrels of oil and fuel products in the coming weeks from their emergency reserves. The G7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S., plus European Union representation. McTeague expects any price relief at the pumps from the 100 million barrel release to be short-lived.Well, G7 uses a total amount, including the United States, being more than half of that, about 32 million barrels a day, he said. That is three days. It is going to help a little bit but I do not think it is going to solve the long-term problem. I think markets are going to restore their upward push on diesel and to lesser extent gasoline prices, McTeague said.G7 Reserve Release Likely Short LivedMcTeague's forecast suggests the pressure on household budgets will not ease soon, even as governments try to calm energy markets with emergency supplies. The timing matters because the seasonal drop in demand that usually brings cheaper fuel in the fall is not materializing. Drivers are left to absorb higher costs through the Thanksgiving holiday and beyond.The reserve release is designed to add supply at a moment when global markets are tight, but McTeague's math shows the daily consumption of G7 economies quickly absorbs the extra barrels. That short window of extra supply is unlikely to offset the broader disruption from conflicts in the Middle East and between Ukraine and Russia. Those conflicts have contributed to surging fuel prices around the world and logistics problems that have pushed diesel and gasoline prices higher.For consumers, the practical effect could be a brief pause or a smaller increase at the pumps rather than a sustained decline in prices. McTeague said markets are likely to return to pushing diesel and gasoline prices upward once the release is absorbed. That keeps the risk of further increases in place.Drivers Face Continued Price VolatilityThe upshot is that drivers should expect continued volatility, with the possibility of another 10 cents a litre before Thanksgiving and a further 10 to 15 cents a litre by the third week of October. The G7 release of 100 million barrels, announced Friday, remains the main policy response so far. But its limited duration relative to daily demand means it may not change the overall direction of prices.Economist Colin Mang has also discussed the extent to which the move by the G7 will relieve consumer burden and how soon the impact will be felt. His comments add context to the debate over how much relief drivers can expect. The latest reporting is dated Oct. 5, 2026, and McTeague's comments were made Monday on CTV's Your Morning. With files from The Associated Press.