A recent poll suggests Republicans may be facing a challenging race in Florida’s 28th congressional district, an area former President Donald Trump won by 25 percentage points in the 2024 election.

Tight Race in a Republican Stronghold

The poll, conducted by EDGE Communications and MDW Communications, reveals a remarkably tight contest. When voters were asked about their preference without candidate names, Republicans led Democrats by only four percentage points – 45% to 41%. This result falls within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.

Giménez and Mujica in a Close Contest

With candidates’ names included, incumbent Republican Congressman Carlos Giménez holds a narrow six-point lead over Democratic challenger Hector Mujica, at 46% to 40% respectively. Florida Politics reported that a substantial 14% of respondents remain undecided.

Third-Party Voter Preferences

Mujica currently has a slight advantage among third- and no-party voters, leading Giménez 39% to 34%. However, 27% of these voters are still undecided, indicating a potential swing vote.

Recent Election Results

Giménez secured re-election in November 2024, winning Florida’s 28th congressional district with 64.6% of the vote against Democratic candidate Phil Ehr’s 35.4%. Trump also carried the district in the 2024 presidential election, receiving 62.36% of the vote to Kamala Harris’ 36.96%.

Poll Details

The survey was based on responses from 514 voters interviewed in early March. EDGE Communications is currently providing strategic advice to Mujica’s campaign.