Flavio Bolsonaro wins first round of Brazil presidential election, faces Lula in October 25 runoff Senator Flavio Bolsonaro won the first round of Brazil's presidential election with 47.2% to Lula da Silva's 44.9%, defying polls. The two will face off in a second round on October 25. Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, won the first round of the Brazilian presidential election tonight with 99% of the votes counted. Bolsonaro led incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva 47.2% to 44.9%, in a race Lula had widely been expected to win. The surprisingly strong showing continues a long run of wins for Latin American Trump-backed right-wing candidates. Bolsonaro will now face off against Lula in a second round election on October 25. Although the race had tightened considerably in the weeks leading up to the election, the vast majority of the polls showed Lula ahead.Polling Errors Favor Bolsonaro CampTonight, the question on everyone's mind is how the pollsters could get the results so wrong. The epic polling failure will serve to give further ammunition to the Brazilian right and the Bolsonaro camp, which have long alleged that the nation's leading pollsters turn in work biased in favor of Lula and his Workers Party. Bolsonaro put in an incredibly strong showing in his electoral strongholds in the south of Brazil, winning the country's three largest states by large margins.In Sao Paulo state, the nation's largest, Bolsonaro led Lula 52% to 38%. In Minas Gerais, Brazil's historic bellwether state, Bolsonaro led Lula 48% to 43%, while in his stronghold of Rio de Janeiro, he bested the incumbent president 53% to 39%. Lula racked up large margins in his traditional strongholds in the Northeast, where he won vote-rich Bahia, Pernambuco, and Ceara by large margins. But it was not enough to surmount Bolsonaro's unprecedented electoral strength in Brazil's south.President Trump sent a letter to former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro calling for an immediate end to the unjust trial against him for allegedly starting a coup. Trump made no secret of his intent to unceremoniously eject longtime geopolitical adversary Lula from office through the course of the campaign.Latin America Conservative ShiftTonight's surprising result is merely the latest in a long string of right-wing victories across Latin America, which has recently ushered in a red wave of conservative candidates in Chile, Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia. Latin America's conservative shift faces its biggest test yet in Brazil election. The election will undoubtedly prompt a period of soul-searching for the Brazilian left, which may be asking, Should Lula have run at all?At 80 years old, with three presidential terms under his belt, and aspiring to a fourth, Lula was widely viewed as the only contender who could unite the contentious and often-fractured Brazilian left. Lula's political story marks one of the greatest comebacks in history. Once imprisoned on corruption charges, Lula was freed by the nation's Supreme Court, and then defeated incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in a heated 2022 election by a razor-thin margin.Famously, he pledged to serve only one term as president in 2022, and then reneged on that promise. Now, the move seems likely to backfire on him, in what will almost certainly be his last electoral campaign. Flavio Bolsonaro will now face off against incumbent Lula in a second round election on October 25. Bolsonaro begins the race with several structural advantages.Third Party Vote DynamicsIn addition to vastly outperforming across the country, and proving the pollsters wrong, he is likely to win the vast majority of the votes of the major third-party candidates: Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Zema. Together, these four candidates received nearly 8% of the vote. What remains to be seen is whether any of these candidates will make an endorsement.It is suspected that Caiado and Zema will back Bolsonaro, while Cury and Santos will likely not make an endorsement. If elected, Flavio Bolsonaro is all but certain to free his father, and senior Brazilian military officers, who are currently jailed on charges of planning a coup to remain in power following the 2022 election.Bolsonaro Family Office GainsThe election also saw other members of the Bolsonaro family ushered into higher office: Jair Bolsonaro's wife, Michelly, was elected senator, as was his son Carlos, while another son, Renan, was elected federal deputy. Bolsonaro's Liberal Party also turned in strong results in races across the country. Flavio Bolsonaro had led a Sao Paulo caravan ahead of the election, joining supporters in Santa Barbara D'Oeste to lead a motorcade.Polls in Brazil had shown a tight presidential race with incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.