Democrats have achieved success in recent Florida special elections, demonstrating an ability to mobilize their base and attract support from both Republican and independent voters. Despite higher Republican turnout in both races, Democratic candidates Emily Gregory and Brian Nathan emerged victorious, signaling a potential change in voter preferences.

Democratic Gains in Florida

Two special election victories in Florida provide further evidence that Democratic success since Donald Trump’s return to the White House extends beyond a motivated base. The wins are attributed to successfully winning over Republicans and independents.

Turnout Data Reveals Key Trends

Data from election officials indicates that more registered Republicans than registered Democrats participated in the two special elections held on March 24. In state House District 87, which includes Mar-a-Lago, voter turnout was 46% Republican and 36% Democrat. State Senate District 14 saw a 46% GOP turnout versus 37% Democrat.

However, Gregory and Nathan outperformed the 2024 presidential election margins by a margin greater than the shift in partisan turnout. This suggests that their success wasn’t solely due to increased Democratic turnout, but also involved attracting voters from other parties.

DeSantis Acknowledges GOP Weakness

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis acknowledged the Republican losses, stating that the results indicated poor performance with independent voters and that “Republicans are voting the other way.” He also pointed to differences with Jane Tomkow, the Republican candidate defeated by Gregory.

Focus on Affordability

Both Gregory and Nathan emphasized their outreach to voters across party lines, focusing on concerns about the rising cost of living – summarized by the term “affordability.”

Candidate Outreach Strategies

“I made sure I wasn’t staying in just Democratic rooms,” Nathan told CNN, explaining his strategy of meeting voters where they are, outside of traditional party settings. He specifically mentioned campaigning in a Publix parking lot, engaging with shoppers about issues important to them. He found that conversations “always came back to affordability in one form or another.”

Gregory echoed this sentiment, stating that “affordability is a broad term” that varies by community. In District 87, she highlighted concerns about property insurance, healthcare, and public schools.

Broader Trends in Voter Alignment

CNN’s analysis of five races – two statewide and three special US House elections – revealed a consistent pattern: registered Democrats improved their turnout relative to 2024 in all cases. Furthermore, Democratic overperformance exceeded the shift in partisan turnout in each race.

While party registration doesn’t guarantee vote choice, defections among registered Republicans were evident in a special election in Florida’s 1st Congressional District last April, where nearly 58% of ballots were cast by Republicans, but the Republican candidate received just under 57% of the vote.

Similar trends were observed in New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial race, where now-Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s campaign successfully reached Republicans and independents, particularly on issues like funding for the Gateway Tunnel project.

CNN’s exit polls from last November also showed that Democratic candidates were successful in persuading voters who had previously supported Donald Trump, with 7-12% of Trump voters backing Democratic candidates in various races.