Recent Democratic successes in elections since Donald Trump’s return to the White House are attributed not only to a motivated base but also to gains among Republican and independent voters.

Florida Special Elections Show Broad Appeal

Two special election victories in Florida provided evidence of this trend. Turnout data from election officials showed more registered Republicans than Democrats participated in the two special elections held on March 24.

District Turnout Data

  • In state House District 87, including Mar-a-Lago, voter turnout was 46% Republican to 36% Democrat.
  • In state Senate District 14, the race saw 46% GOP turnout versus 37% Democrat.

In both races, Democrat Emily Gregory and Brian Nathan exceeded the 2024 presidential margins, suggesting support from both registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters.

Analyzing Voter Behavior

In District 87, analysis suggests that even if all registered Republicans had voted for the GOP candidate, Democrat Emily Gregory would have still received approximately 84% of the votes from unaffiliated voters. Alternatively, if unaffiliated voters had split evenly, around 13% of registered Republicans would have voted for Gregory.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis acknowledged the results in Senate District 14, stating the Republican loss despite a turnout advantage indicated poor performance with independents and “Republicans are voting the other way.” He also cited differences with the losing Republican candidate, Jane Tomkow.

Focus on Affordability

Both Gregory and Nathan emphasized their outreach focused on concerns about the rising cost of living, summarized by the term “affordability.”

“I made sure I wasn’t staying in just Democratic rooms,” Nathan told CNN, explaining he campaigned “where the regular people go, where they’re not divided up by party lines,” including locations like a Publix parking lot. He noted conversations consistently returned to affordability.

Gregory added that “affordability is a broad term” that varies by community, citing property insurance, healthcare, and public schools as key concerns in District 87.

Broader Trends Across Multiple Races

CNN examined five races – two statewide and three special US House elections – where voters can register with a party. In all five, Democratic turnout improved relative to 2024. Democratic overperformance also exceeded the shift in partisan turnout in each case.

While party registration doesn’t guarantee vote choice, mathematical certainty indicated defections among registered Republicans in Florida’s 1st Congressional District special election last April, where nearly 58% of ballots were cast by Republicans, but the GOP candidate received just under 57% of the vote.

New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Example

In New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial race, now-Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s campaign saw indications of reaching Republicans and independents. A senior adviser, Jackie Burns, reported voters stating they had voted for Trump but were backing Sherrill.

A midday event in Ocean County, traditionally Republican, drew hundreds of attendees. The threat by Trump to halt funding for the Gateway Tunnel project, a $16 billion commuter rail project, resonated with Republicans and independents, with Sherrill accusing her opponent of insufficient opposition to the White House.

National Exit Poll Data

CNN’s exit polls from last November revealed a Democratic advantage in persuasion. In three statewide races, a higher percentage of Trump 2024 voters defected to Democratic candidates than Harris voters. Specifically, 7% of Trump voters supported the Democratic gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey and Virginia, and 12% of Trump supporters backed a Democratic-backed ballot measure in California. Voters who supported neither Trump nor Harris in 2024 overwhelmingly favored the Democratic side.