Military Experts Question Strategy of Seizing Kharg Island

President Trump has threatened to deploy ground forces to capture Kharg Island, the central hub of Iran’s oil exports, warning of severe consequences if military operations with Iran do not cease shortly.

However, military analysts argue that such an operation would place U.S. troops in significant jeopardy and might not achieve the objective of forcing Iran to capitulate.

Kharg Island is crucial as 90% of Iran’s oil exports pass through it, largely because much of Iran's coastline is too shallow for large tankers to dock.

Risks of Ground Deployment

Michael Eisenstadt, Director of Military and Security Studies at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, noted that while a ground seizure might be psychologically impactful, it exposes U.S. personnel to danger.

Eisenstadt, a retired Army reserve officer, pointed out the island's proximity to the mainland—only about 33 kilometers away—allows Iran to inflict heavy damage on the occupied infrastructure using missiles and artillery.

Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, suggested that such an action could escalate retaliation from Iran and its proxies, potentially involving mining the Strait of Hormuz or drone strikes across the Arabian Peninsula.

Limited Effectiveness and Escalation Concerns

Citrinowicz stated that seizing Kharg would be difficult to secure and might damage the Iranian economy, but it would likely fail to compel Iranian surrender.

He added that trading control of the island for Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is an unlikely scenario, emphasizing that it is “in no way a decisive blow.”

Energy researcher Petras Katinas of the Royal United Services Institute confirmed that while disrupting Kharg would reduce revenue by forcing exports through smaller, costlier ports, Iran has other minor export options.

Alternative Strategies Proposed by Experts

Experts suggest that a naval blockade targeting oil shipments leaving Kharg terminals offers a less risky path to hobble Iran's oil revenue.

Eisenstadt advocates for a sea quarantine to seize exports, arguing it achieves the goal of controlling most oil industry flow while keeping troops safer.

Clayton Seigle, an energy security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, agreed, noting a distant blockade could operate outside the range of most Iranian weaponry.

Seigle also cautioned against destroying the island's infrastructure, as this would cripple Iran's revenue potential for years, contradicting the goal of supporting Iranian protestors.

Current Regional Tensions and U.S. Posture

The current conflict stems from Iran attacking U.S. bases and allies, coupled with Iran largely closing the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles 20% of global oil flow, causing economic turmoil.

Trump previously threatened to obliterate power plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and desalination plants if a deal was not reached soon.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated diplomacy remains the preference but confirmed the President has multiple options to counter Iranian threats, such as controlling the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. has already conducted strikes on Kharg, targeting air defenses, a radar site, the airport, and a hovercraft base, according to satellite analysis.

The U.S. military presence is increasing, with a Navy ship carrying Marines and expected arrivals from the 82nd Airborne Division, which specializes in securing hostile territory.

Eisenstadt noted that even with air support, the mountainous terrain near the island creates blind spots, making it difficult for radar to detect incoming drones and missiles launched from the mainland in time.