Military Experts Question Strategy of Seizing Kharg Island

President Donald Trump has publicly threatened to deploy U.S. ground troops to capture Kharg Island, a key piece of Iran's oil infrastructure. However, military analysts suggest this aggressive gambit carries significant risks for American service members and may not successfully conclude the ongoing conflict with Iran.

Experts propose that a naval blockade targeting ships loading oil at Kharg's terminals could be a more effective, less perilous alternative for pressuring Iran's oil industry during negotiations.

Kharg Island: The Heart of Iranian Oil Exports

Kharg Island is central to Iran's energy sector, handling approximately 90% of the nation's oil exports. This is due to the fact that much of Iran's coastline is too shallow for large tanker ships to dock safely.

The island is situated across the Persian Gulf from U.S. bases located in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Michael Eisenstadt, director of Military and Security Studies at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, noted the psychological impact of a ground operation.

"Putting people on the ground might be the most psychologically compelling way of striking a blow at Iran," stated Eisenstadt, a retired Army reserve officer who served in Iraq. He immediately countered this by emphasizing the danger: "On the other hand, you're putting your own troops at jeopardy."

Risks of Escalation and Limited Strategic Gain

Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, warned that seizing the island could trigger intensified retaliation from Iran and its proxies, such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Retaliation could involve laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz or launching drone attacks across the Arabian Peninsula, extending from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. Commodities researchers and investment banks caution that such major retaliation would severely impact global energy prices and the world economy.

Citrinowicz concluded that the operation would be difficult both to execute and to maintain. "It will be hard to take. It will be hard to hold," he said, adding that while it might damage the economy, it likely "will not force the Iranians to capitulate."

Trump's Stance and Diplomatic Context

President Trump is facing pressure to resolve the monthlong confrontation, which has included attacks on U.S. bases and allies. Iran has also significantly restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for 20% of global oil flow, leading to soaring fuel costs.

On Monday, Trump claimed "great progress is being made" in talks but warned that if the strait is not reopened shortly, the U.S. would strike power plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and desalination facilities.

Trump has floated the idea of seizing the island, telling the Financial Times, "Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don't. We have a lot of options." He expressed confidence in the military's ability to take it easily, stating, "I don't think they have any defense."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio previously stated ground troops would not be necessary to meet U.S. objectives. On Monday, Rubio reiterated that diplomacy remains Trump's preference, but confirmed the President has several options available to prevent Iran from controlling the Hormuz Strait in perpetuity.

Previous Strikes and Alternative Measures

The U.S. has already conducted strikes against specific targets on Kharg Island, including air defenses, a radar site, the airport, and a hovercraft base, according to satellite analysis from the Institute for the Study of War and the Critical Threats Project.

Petras Katinas, an energy researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, noted that while disrupting the island would not halt all exports, it would force Iran to use smaller, more expensive, and less efficient ports, thereby reducing government revenue.

However, Citrinowicz argued that Tehran has too much at stake to surrender over one asset, dismissing the idea that control of the island could be traded for Iran's enriched uranium stockpile as "far-fetched." He maintained, "It's in no way a decisive blow."

Vulnerability Due to Proximity to Mainland

The deployment of U.S. forces, including a Navy ship carrying 2,500 Marines and expected troops from the 82nd Airborne Division, raises concerns about troop safety on the island.

American troops would be highly vulnerable because Kharg Island is only about 33 kilometers from the Iranian mainland. This proximity allows Iran to launch missiles, drones, and artillery fire toward the island.

Eisenstadt explained that even with air and naval support, there would be insufficient warning time to intercept every threat. "The coast tends to be mountainous, so the drones can come in through mountain passes where it's hard for our radar to pick up," he stated.

Blockade Proposed as Safer Option

Eisenstadt advocates for a sea blockade as a safer strategy to achieve the goal of controlling most of Iran's oil industry. Clayton Seigle, an energy security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, agreed with this approach.

Seigle suggested imposing a quarantine to seize Iranian oil shipments as they exit the Gulf. This could be executed "outside the range of the lion's share of Iran's weapon systems," he argued.

Seigle also opposed destroying the island's infrastructure, as suggested by Trump. He reasoned that crippling Iran's revenue for years would undermine efforts to support the Iranian people who are protesting for a better future.