Europe heat killed 50,391 people; climate change blamed for 32,619 deaths
A new study finds Europe's summer heat killed 50,391 people, with 32,619 deaths from human-caused climate change, far exceeding the previous deadliest summer.
Europe heat killed 50,391 people; climate change blamed for 32,619 deaths A new study finds Europe's summer heat killed 50,391 people, with 32,619 deaths from human-caused climate change, far exceeding the previous deadliest summer. Europe's record-shattering summer heat killed 50,391 people, and 32,619 of those deaths were caused by human-driven climate change, a new study has found. The research, published in an upcoming issue of Nature Health, modeled heat-related deaths for different age groups in 854 European cities during repeated heat waves in June, July and August. That toll is 71 per cent higher than the previous deadliest summer, which was 29,480 deaths in 2022, according to the same researchers, who produced an earlier study this month tracking yearly summer heat deaths in those cities. The study authors said this summer's figures are underestimates because they exclude a deadly heat wave in May and cover only the 854 cities, which hold about 40 per cent of Europe's population.Heat Wave Intensified Across EuropeAbout one-third of the deaths occurred from June 17 to July 1, a particularly intense heat wave when temperatures were 9.5 degrees Fahrenheit (5.3 degrees Celsius) above normal, said co-author Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, a biostatistician at Imperial College London. Lead author Clair Barnes, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, said much of Western and Northern Europe is not built to handle today's temperatures. Some European cities this summer hit 21.6 F (12 C) warmer than normal, she added.Italy, France, Spain and Germany recorded the highest death tolls, the study said. Among European capitals, Rome had the highest heat death total from 2000 to 2025, according to the team's earlier study. Barnes said Europe is the fastest-warming continent, though the Arctic is warming faster still, and is 4.5 F (2.5 C) hotter than pre-industrial times. She said the extra 2.5 C of warming is what tips temperatures from uncomfortable to dangerous, and potentially deadly, for many people.More than half of those who died were 85 or older, but more than 800 deaths were among people aged 20 to 44, Konstantinoudis said. To separate natural summer heat deaths from those caused by heat-trapping gases, the team ran computer simulations of a world without climate change and compared them with deaths that occurred this summer. The difference is what global warming caused.Climate Change Drives Rising MortalityThe share of heat deaths attributable to global warming has risen from about 45 per cent in the early 2000s to 65 per cent now, Barnes said. The team also used statistical modeling to derive the base count of 50,000 heat deaths, because such deaths are underreported and often absent from death certificates, Konstantinoudis said. Several outside experts said the methods are state-of-the-art.Dr. Howard Frumkin, former director of the U.S. National Center for Environmental Health, said summers are getting hotter while tools for attributing deaths to heat are becoming more accurate. The researchers used a complex mathematical equation, applied in several previously peer-reviewed studies, that factors in age and temperatures for each of the 854 cities based on a localized optimal temperature tied to the fewest deaths. When temperatures rise or fall, the equation calculates excess deaths above the lowest-death conditions.The team then checked its calculations against real-time government estimates, and Konstantinoudis said they mostly, but not always, matched well. For British heat waves in May and June, the team calculated 2,700 excess deaths, while the United Kingdom health statistics agency reported 2,800, he said.Experts Call For Climate ActionDr. Courtney Howard, president-elect of the Canadian Medical Association, who was not part of the research, said urgent investments are needed in heat early-warning systems, equitable access to low-carbon cooling, and neighborhood buddy systems that check on people most at risk. Dr. Jonathan Patz of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, also not part of the research, praised it and said adapting is only part of the answer.Patz, a professor of health and the environment, said better cooling and protecting vulnerable populations from more frequent extreme heat waves are needed, but so is addressing the root cause: the burning of fossil fuels. Separately, a powerful earthquake in China's Tibet region collapsed hundreds of homes and killed at least 16 people, while other recent news included an mRNA cancer vaccine for melanoma, a $140 million sale of a shuttered Yukon mine, and global website outages after an AI system found a cybersecurity flaw affecting 70 per cent of the internet.
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