Long-Term Energy Price Outlook

European Union Commissioner for Energy and Housing, Dan Jørgensen, has issued a stark warning regarding the continent's energy crisis. Following a meeting of EU energy ministers in Brussels on March 16, 2026, Jørgensen stated that energy prices will not return to normal levels in the foreseeable future, even if the war in Iran concludes immediately.

While the 27-member bloc is not currently facing immediate supply shortages, Jørgensen highlighted significant pressure on diesel and jet fuel supplies. Furthermore, increasing constraints within global gas markets continue to drive up electricity prices across Europe.

Economic Impact and Proposed Measures

The current energy crisis has resulted in a 70% price hike for gas and a 60% increase for oil in Europe. These surges have added 14 billion euros to the EU’s bill for imported fossil fuels. To mitigate these costs, the European Commission is developing a “toolbox” of measures to support families and businesses.

Key Strategic Actions

  • Market Decoupling: The EU is exploring ways to allow member states to decouple gas prices from electricity prices.
  • Taxation: Officials are considering tax cuts on electricity and a potential one-time “windfall tax” on energy companies that may profit from price spikes.
  • Financial Support: The Commission plans to simplify and expand financial assistance programs for vulnerable groups and industries under extraordinary stress.

Reducing Energy Dependence

Jørgensen emphasized the importance of avoiding fragmented national responses and maintaining a unified EU strategy. He also encouraged member states to adopt the International Energy Agency’s 10-point plan, which includes initiatives like remote work, reduced highway speeds, and increased car sharing.

The EU remains committed to ending its reliance on Russian energy, which has dropped from 45% before the war in Ukraine to 10% today. The bloc plans to reduce this to zero by sourcing energy from suppliers in the U.S., Azerbaijan, Algeria, and Canada. Jørgensen stated that the EU must not repeat past mistakes by allowing energy to be weaponized against member states, nor should it continue financing the war in Ukraine through energy imports.