The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has declared a "defensive war" against the Ethiopian federal government. Clashes have erupted in Tigray, Amhara, and Afar following reports of TPLF advances.
The 2022 Pretoria Agreement's unresolved tensions
The 2022 Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement remains the primary framework for peace in northern Ethiopia, yet it has struggled to address the root causes of the conflict. As the report notes, the agreement halted the major fighting that began in November 2020, but it left several critical issues unresolved, including the disarmament of TPLF forces and the status of disputed territories in western Tigray.
The original two-year war between the TPLF and the federal government resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and displaced millions of people. Because the underlying political and territorial disputes were never fully settled, the current escalation in the Tigray, Amhara, and Afar regions suggests that the peace process is facing a fundamental breakdown.
TPLF forces seize Alula Aba Nega Airport in Mekelle
TPLF forces have reportedly seized control of the Alula Aba Nega Airport in Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region.. This move represents a significant tactical shift, as the airport is a vital piece of infrastructure for the region. According to the TPLF-led Tigray regional government, the seizure occurred as part of a broader response to what they describe as a large-scale federal offensive.
The control of key assets like Mekelle's airport often signals a shift from localized skirmishes to more organized military operations. The report states that the TPLF's decision to engage in what they call a "defensive war" follows these strategic gains in the northern territories.
A seven-group alliance targeting Abiy Ahmed's government
A new political and military coalition is emerging to challenge the federal administration led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.. Last week, seven different armed and political groups, including the TPLF, announced they had formed an alliance to coordinate their opposition to the central government.
This coalition marks a significant expansion of the political opposition in Ethiopia.. By uniting various regional interests, these seven groups are attempting to create a unified front against the federal government, moving the conflict beyond a localized Tigrayan struggle and into a broader national confrontation.
Whose offensive triggered the Wednesday clashes?
The report presents conflicting accounts regarding the origin of the Wednesday violence. While the TPLF-led Tigray regional government claims federal forces launched a large-scale offensive using infantry, mechanized units, and drones, Getachew Reda—a federal government adviser and former Tigray interim head—accused the TPLF of attacking government positions in Afar and Amhara.
Several specific claims remain unverified by independent observers. It is currently unknown whether the federal military actually deployed the air assets and drones described by the TPLF, or if the TPLF's military movements were the initial provocation. Furthermore , the exact scale of the federal offensive remains a point of contention between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF leadership.
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