Iran's Enduring Resistance After One Month of Conflict

The United States and Israel initiated military action against Iran on February 28. Following this, the Trump administration asserted that the Islamic Republic's military capabilities had been virtually "obliterated." However, after more than a month of intense U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, Iran's military, though degraded, continues to act as a persistent adversary.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed last week that no nation's military had ever been neutralized so quickly. Despite this assertion, Iran maintains a steady stream of strikes targeting Israel and neighboring Gulf Arab nations.

Analyzing the Decline in Iranian Firepower

Officials from both the U.S. and Israel frequently cite a sharp reduction in Iran's ballistic missile launches as evidence that efforts to destroy stockpiles and launchers are succeeding. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine reported on March 4 that Iran's ballistic missile shots were down 86% from the war's start, with one-way attack drone shots down 73%.

Two weeks later, Hegseth stated the volume of ballistic missile attacks had dropped by "90% since the conflict began." On Tuesday, Hegseth noted the lowest number of missile and drone firings in the preceding 24 hours, though no new percentages were provided. Trump echoed this sentiment on Truth Social, declaring that "Iran has been, essentially, decimated."

Independent Data Challenges Official Narratives

Data from Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), a U.S.-based conflict tracking group, supports the claim of an initial slowdown. On the second day of the war, Iran conducted nearly 100 strikes, which fell to 53 the following day and remained near that level for several days.

However, ACLED data covering the three and a half weeks since March 6 shows Iran has not exceeded 50 strikes on any single day. For the past three weeks, Iran has averaged about 30 strikes daily, occasionally increasing the tempo. Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, questioned whether this represented a capacity issue or a strategic choice, suggesting Iran might be rationing its resources.

Strategic Considerations and Target Selection

Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at CSIS, noted that the U.S. and Israel are expending "billions of dollars in long-range anti-missile defenses, which are scarce national resources." He warned that interceptor supplies could dwindle before all mobile launchers and missile stockpiles are eliminated, an objective proving "maddeningly difficult."

Experts suggest U.S. officials may be underestimating the complexity of Iran's arsenal. Farzin Nadimi, an expert on Iranian missiles at The Washington Institute, stated that "at least half of the arsenal is stored in very hardened facilities that are not easily reachable with air power."

Analysts observe that Tehran appears to have refined its targeting strategy, contrary to Hegseth's description of "flailing recklessly." Nadimi added that Iran has become more efficient, "able to strike targets more efficiently and therefore use fewer missiles to achieve the same result."

The Economic War Strategy

Iran's strikes across the Persian Gulf, particularly against the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, aim to impose a settlement on the U.S. Assaf Orion, a retired Israeli brigadier general, stated that in this asymmetrical conflict, Iran's primary goal is to "attack the world economy in hopes of coercing the U.S. to stop." He suggested this economic pressure is now more critical to Iran than attacking Israel, which views the war as existential and is unlikely to yield.

Last week, Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones at a Saudi air base, resulting in injuries to over two dozen U.S. troops and aircraft damage. The long-term sustainability of Iran's current retaliation level remains uncertain due to limited U.S. and Israeli intelligence regarding the remaining missile and drone inventory.