California Governor's Race: Dems Fear Potential Loss

Democrats have long dominated California politics, but a nationally significant election is revealing the limits of their power. The race for governor is proving unexpectedly competitive, with Democratic leaders openly expressing concern about a potential loss in a statewide election for the first time in 20 years.

A Crowded Field and Internal Divisions

Barely a month before mail-in voting begins, the contest has devolved into infighting over debate eligibility, identity politics, and past election scrutiny. These issues, however, seem distant to voters grappling with the rising cost of living, including gas and groceries.

“Squabbles about debates or other inside baseball politics are likely under the radar for most voters and seem almost absurd, given what’s facing us,” stated Kim Nalder, director of the Project for an Informed Electorate at California State University, Sacramento.

Uncertainty and a Large Number of Candidates

Candidates acknowledge that a significant portion of the electorate remains undecided about who should lead the nation’s most populous state – an economy ranking fourth-largest globally. The ballot features over 50 candidates, including eight established Democrats and two prominent Republicans.

This marks a departure from previous gubernatorial elections, where candidates like Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsom easily secured their positions. Veteran Democratic consultant Dan Newman admitted, “I have no idea and anybody who tells you they do, they don’t know either.”

The 'Top Two' Primary System

Democrats’ precarious position in the June 2 primary stems from California’s “top two” primary system. This system places all candidates on a single ballot, with only the top two vote-getters advancing to November, regardless of party affiliation.

The fear is that the large number of Democratic candidates will split the vote, potentially allowing the two leading Republicans – Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton, both supporters of President Donald Trump – to advance to the general election.

Debate Controversy and Accusations

The race has been marred by controversy, including the cancellation of a major televised debate. This followed an uproar over selection criteria that resulted in six white candidates qualifying while candidates of color were excluded. The University of Southern California, citing distractions from voter issues, ultimately canceled the event.

State Democratic Chair Rusty Hicks previously urged lagging candidates to withdraw from the race. Meanwhile, Representative Eric Swalwell accused President Trump of attempting to influence the election after reports surfaced of FBI agents gathering documents related to a decade-old investigation into Swalwell’s ties to a suspected Chinese spy – an investigation that did not lead to criminal charges.

Election Integrity Concerns

Sheriff Bianco briefly paused a probe into 2025 election fraud allegations after seizing over half a million ballots, citing legal challenges from the state and a voting rights group.

Broader Implications for Democrats

Despite Democratic successes in other recent races, officials in California worry that a loss in the governor’s race could depress voter turnout in crucial U.S. House races. Hicks warned this could “imperil Democrats’ chances to retake the House.”

The contest is unfolding with President Trump as a frequent point of contrast for Democratic candidates, reflecting California’s reputation as a center of opposition to his policies. However, the state also faces significant challenges, including homelessness, high housing costs, potential budget shortfalls, and high costs of living.

Early February polling by the Public Policy Institute of California indicated a competitive race, with Bianco, Hilton, and three Democrats – Swalwell, former Rep. Katie Porter, and billionaire Tom Steyer – in close contention. The situation echoes the 1998 gubernatorial race, where an underdog Democrat, Gray Davis, capitalized on infighting among leading Democratic candidates.

“Normally people would be paying attention,” Newman said. “The whole campaign has been in slow motion.”