Democrats have historically held a strong grip on California politics, but a challenging gubernatorial race is testing the limits of their power. With a nationally critical election on the horizon, the party is facing the possibility of losing a statewide election for the first time in two decades.

A Crowded and Costly Contest

The race for governor is characterized by a large number of candidates and significant campaign spending. Barely a month before mail-in voting begins, Democratic leaders are openly expressing their anxieties about the outcome.

Focus on Internal Issues, Not Voter Concerns

The contest has devolved into disagreements over debate participation, identity politics, and 2025 ballot counting. These issues, however, appear distant from the concerns of voters grappling with rising costs of living, including gas and groceries.

“Squabbles about debates or other inside baseball politics are likely under the radar for most voters and seem almost absurd, given what’s facing us,” said Kim Nalder, director of the Project for an Informed Electorate at California State University, Sacramento.

Uncertainty and a Divided Electorate

A significant portion of California voters remain undecided about who should lead the nation’s most populous state – an economy ranking fourth-largest globally. More than 50 candidates are on the ballot, including eight Democrats and two Republicans.

This marks a departure from previous gubernatorial elections, where candidates like Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsom easily secured their positions. Veteran Democratic consultant Dan Newman admitted, “I have no idea and anybody who tells you they do, they don’t know either.”

The “Top Two” Primary System

Democrats’ concerns stem from California’s “top two” primary system, where all candidates appear on a single ballot, and only the top two vote-getters advance to the November election, regardless of party affiliation. The fear is that the numerous Democratic candidates will split the vote, potentially allowing the two leading Republicans – Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton – to move forward.

Campaign Chaos and Accusations

The race has been marred by personal attacks and controversies. A major televised debate was canceled following a dispute over selection criteria, which led to accusations of discrimination after six white candidates qualified while candidates of color were excluded. The University of Southern California, which was to host the debate, stated the dispute “created a significant distraction from the issues that matter to voters.”

State Democratic Chair Rusty Hicks urged lagging candidates to withdraw from the race. Meanwhile, Representative Eric Swalwell accused former President Donald Trump of attempting to influence the election after reports surfaced of administration officials seeking documents related to a past investigation into Swalwell’s ties to a suspected Chinese spy. This investigation did not result in criminal charges.

Election Integrity Concerns

Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco paused an investigation into election fraud allegations after facing legal challenges from the state and a voting rights group, following his seizure of over half a million 2025 election ballots.

National Implications

Despite Democratic successes in other recent races, California officials fear a loss in the gubernatorial election could negatively impact turnout in crucial U.S. House races. Hicks warned that this could “imperil Democrats’ chances to retake the House.”

The race is unfolding with Trump as a central point of opposition for Democratic candidates, reflecting California’s reputation as a hub of anti-Trump sentiment. However, the state also faces significant challenges, including homelessness, high housing costs, potential budget shortfalls, and high taxes.

Echoes of 1998

Early February polling by the Public Policy Institute of California indicated a competitive field, with Bianco, Hilton, and three Democrats – Swalwell, former Representative Katie Porter, and billionaire Tom Steyer – in close contention. This volatile situation recalls the 1998 gubernatorial race, where underdog Democrat Gray Davis emerged victorious after two leading Democrats engaged in mutual attacks.

Candidates now face the challenge of competing for attention in a fragmented media landscape, navigating digital platforms and content creators to reach distracted voters.