Artemis 2: A Historic, Yet Risky, Endeavor

Decades of preparation have culminated in the Artemis 2 mission, poised to be the first crewed flight to the Moon in over 50 years. NASA astronaut Victor Glover and his crew underwent training, including ocean recovery simulations on February 25th, preparing for the challenges ahead. While the mission represents a monumental achievement, a number of potential issues could jeopardize its success – and the lives of the four astronauts onboard.

Potential Failures During Launch and Initial Orbit

ICPS Separation and Trajectory

Shortly after launch, the Orion spacecraft must separate from the Space Launch System rocket’s interim cryogenic propulsion stage (ICPS). A failure of the ICPS to perform its initial burn could prevent Orion from reaching the intended low Earth orbit. This scenario could force an emergency return to Earth, effectively ending the mission.

Translunar Injection (TLI): A Critical Burn

Approximately 25 hours after launch, Orion’s service module will execute the translunar injection (TLI) burn, setting the spacecraft on a course for the Moon. According to NASA, a failed TLI could strand Orion in Earth orbit, send it off course, or necessitate an early mission abort. Contingency plans are in place to address potential engine malfunctions, loss of communication, and other system failures that could impact the TLI burn.

The Service Module: Orion’s Lifeline

Power Systems and Radiation Concerns

Orion’s service module is crucial, providing essential resources like electricity, propulsion, thermal control, air, and water. The module’s four solar array wings generate 11.2 kilowatts of power, vital for all spacecraft systems. During Artemis 1, a power conditioning unit experienced a glitch attributed to radiation, highlighting the vulnerability of the power system.

Redundancy and System Failures

While redundancies are built into Orion’s systems, failures can still occur. The propulsion system has 33 engines, allowing for continued maneuvering even with some failures. However, a complete life support system shutdown would be catastrophic, depriving the crew of breathable air, water, and temperature control.

The Threat of Solar Weather

Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections

Throughout the 10-day mission, NASA will closely monitor solar activity. Powerful solar flares or coronal mass ejections (CMEs) could disrupt Orion’s systems and endanger the crew. Even without extreme events, spaceflight exposes astronauts to significantly higher radiation levels than on Earth. A large solar event could overwhelm the spacecraft’s radiation shielding.

Mitigation Strategies

If radiation levels become dangerously high, astronauts may need to take shelter within the spacecraft. Solar weather can also cause technical glitches, affecting communications, navigation, and power distribution. While the current forecast is favorable, the Sun’s unpredictability necessitates constant vigilance.

Reentry and Landing: The Final Challenge

Heat Shield Performance

Upon returning to Earth, the crew module will separate from the service module, relying on its heat shield to withstand the intense heat of atmospheric reentry. Past missions experienced issues with the heat shield, with portions shearing away unevenly. NASA and Lockheed Martin have spent four years investigating and resolving this issue, addressing problems with gas buildup within the shield’s ablative layer.

Parachute Deployment

A correctly functioning parachute system is also critical for a safe landing. The system, comprised of 11 parachutes, will slow the crew module from 324 miles per hour to 17 mph for a splashdown in the ocean.

Acknowledging the Risks

While NASA has taken extensive precautions, no spaceflight is without risk. These scenarios represent unlikely, but not impossible, worst-case outcomes. Despite the inherent dangers, NASA is confident in the mission’s preparation and the crew’s safety. Humanity’s return to the Moon is a bold endeavor, and a successful mission is the ultimate goal.