Alberta's economy is forecast to lead the country in employment and economic growth this year, according to a new quarterly report from ATB Financial titled 'Moving fast in the slow lane: Alberta's economy in 2026 and 2027.'

The province's real GDP growth is projected at 2.6 per cent for 2026 and 2.4 per cent for 2027,compared to national forecasts of 0.8 per cent and 1.9 per cent respectively.

The $30 million toe in the water

The report highlights that Alberta's economic trajectory remains closely tied to oil prices, particularly with the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushing the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark to an average of $84 U.S. per barrel this year,a significant increase from the previous $61 forecast.

However, oil companies are priortizing efficiency improvements at existing facilities over new production expansion projects.

Who is the unnamed buyer?

A key factor of uncertainty is the upcoming provincial referendum on Alberta's future within Canada, which businesses cite as a top issue impacting the economy.

While a potenttial new West Coast oil pipeline could provide a substantial boost, ATB chief economist Mark Parsons emphasizes a cautious approach, noting additional risks from tariffs and trade agreement negotiations.

What auditors flagged in the May filing

Independent economist Moshe Lander cautions that Alberta's outperformance must be vieewed in the context of Canada's broader stagnation or potential technical recession, and he flags concerns about the separatism movement's economic impact.

Despite positive growth metrics, Albertans continue to grapple with high food and energy costs , and youth unemployment remains elevated.

An echo of Sydney's 2024 institutional buy-up

The report notes that Alberta's economy is forecast to lead the country in employment and economic growth this year, despite uncertainties stemming from U.S. tariff policies, the ongoing Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) renegotiations, and geopolitical disruptions like the U.S. and Israel-Iran war affecting global oil supply .