The upcoming 2026 NFL Draft class of quarterbacks is shaping up to be one of the most scrutinized in recent memory. While the potential for high-end talent exists, this group is characterized by a wider range of outcomes than usual, with some prospects offering limited upside and others carrying significant risk.

Indiana's Mendoza: A Quick Learner with Pressure Concerns

Jayden Mendoza boasts impressive college stats: 27 starts, 538-for-765 passing, 6,539 yards, a 70.3% completion rate, 57 touchdowns, and a low 1.6% interception rate. He also added 111 non-sack rushes for 784 yards and nine touchdowns.

Rapid Improvement and Late-Season Dominance

Mendoza’s performance trajectory is remarkable. His final five games included a Big Ten championship win over Ohio State and College Football Playoff victories against Alabama, Oregon, and Miami. Despite facing tougher competition, his opponent-adjusted Total QBR continued to rise. Observers noted his ability to quickly learn from mistakes, almost mastering the game as the season progressed.

Sack Rate as a Potential Red Flag

Despite his strengths, Mendoza faced challenges under pressure. His sacks-to-pressures ratio was 25.3% at Cal in 2024 and 22.5% at Indiana in 2025, exceeding the national average of 17.2%. He was sacked 18 times in his final seven games of 2025 with a 30.5% sacks-to-pressures ratio. While some top picks have overcome similar trends, this remains a concern, as sack rates tend to be a persistent statistic for quarterbacks.

Simpson: Safe but Lacking Elite Upside

Cole Simpson is known for his safe, short-area passing and exceptional interception rate of just 1%. He operates well in crowded pockets and extends plays without taking excessive hits. He completed 319-for-498 passes for 3,734 yards and 28 touchdowns in 15 starts.

Limited Downfield Threat

Despite his efficiency, Simpson lacks the aggressive downfield passing ability NFL scouts desire. He ranked just 54th in yards per completion and 55th in yards per dropback. Only 12.7% of his passes traveled 20-plus yards downfield. His limited experience – only 562 dropbacks and 142 against man coverage in the past two seasons – also raises questions about his ceiling.

Beck: Quick Release, Limited Extension

Brady Beck is characterized by a quick release and efficient short passing game. He completed 628-for-915 passes for 7,298 yards and 58 touchdowns in 29 starts. He was second in average time to throw and first in pressure rate.

Reliance on Short Passes and Pocket Presence

Beck’s game revolves around quick, short passes, with 30.5% of his targets at or behind the line of scrimmage. While he excels in this area, he lacks the ability to extend plays or consistently make deep throws. He ranked 56th in average air yards per pass and 54th in interception rate despite rarely attempting deep passes.

Nussmeier: Injury-Plagued and Conservative

Walker Nussmeier’s stats are somewhat misleading due to an injury-plagued 2025 season. He completed 531-for-813 passes for 5,979 yards and 41 touchdowns in 22 starts.

Shift to Conservative Playstyle

Nussmeier adopted a more conservative approach in 2025, prioritizing completion percentage over downfield attempts. His yards per completion shrank to 9.9, and his yards per dropback fell to 6.0. While this change may be beneficial if he regains full health, it raises concerns about his overall upside.

Greeley: A Dual-Threat with Questions

Jaxon Greeley offers a unique skillset as a dual-threat quarterback. He completed 428-for-707 passes for 5,868 yards and 34 touchdowns in 24 starts, while also rushing for 1,837 yards and 16 touchdowns on 236 non-sack rushes.