2026 NFL Draft Quarterback Landscape: A One-QB Class

The upcoming 2026 NFL Draft is not characterized by a deep pool of quarterback talent, leading many analysts to label it largely as a one-quarterback draft class. This scarcity places immense value on the top signal-callers available in April.

The Las Vegas Raiders hold the prime advantage, possessing the first overall selection, which is widely projected to be used on Indiana's Fernando Mendoza. Mendoza is considered the overwhelming favorite to be the first quarterback selected.

Tier 1: The Projected Top Pick

Fernando Mendoza enters the draft possessing the necessary traits to rapidly develop into an impactful NFL starter. He is lauded as an incredibly precise and accurate quarterback with impressive pocket presence.

The reigning Heisman Trophy winner is viewed by scouts as having every required attribute for immediate success at the professional level.

Tier 2: High-Upside Prospects and Wild Cards

Alabama's Ty Simpson is a notable prospect whose draft stock is complicated by inexperience, having only 15 career starts. While he showed significant development in September and October, his performance regressed late in the season.

  • At his peak, Simpson demonstrates high-level accuracy and an excellent ability to diagnose defenses before the snap.

North Dakota State's Cole Payton stands out as the true wild card in this quarterback group. He is an inexperienced one-year starter who maximized his opportunity by throwing for 16 touchdowns and rushing for 13 more.

This dual-threat playmaker arguably presents the widest range of potential outcomes among all quarterbacks available in the 2026 draft.

Day Two Targets and Developmental Projects

Any NFL franchise needing a long-term quarterback solution, excluding the Raiders, should focus their Day Two efforts on securing Garrett Nussmeier. A disappointing, injury-plagued 2025 season hampered his projection, but scouts still recall his strong 2024 performance.

As a junior in 2024, Nussmeier amassed 4,052 passing yards and 29 touchdowns, looking every bit like a future first-round selection.

Drew Allar, once projected in the first round, suffered a disappointing start to his 2025 season that ended with a season-ending injury. He possesses natural gifts in terms of size and arm strength.

  • NFL evaluators see Allar as a developmental prospect who must significantly overhaul his mechanics to reach his ceiling.

Carson Beck transferred from Georgia to Miami, significantly improving his stock by helping the Hurricanes reach the National Championship Game. His time under Mario Cristobal and Shannon Dawson enhanced his overall profile.

Beck is an accurate rhythm-and-timing thrower, though he has shown a tendency toward making poor decisions when facing pressure.

Mid-to-Late Round Options

Sawyer Robertson benefited greatly from playing within Baylor's high-volume passing attack, totaling 59 touchdowns over 872 attempts in his final two college seasons. While he may lack the necessary velocity for a starting role, he could develop into an effective game-managing backup.

Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green is an athletic runner, accumulating 2,403 rushing yards and 35 rushing touchdowns over five college seasons. However, these running skills do not translate to his passing game.

  • Green is an inaccurate thrower who frequently endangers possession, throwing 35 interceptions across his final four seasons at Boise State and Arkansas.

Luke Altmyer showed improvement as a passer in 2025, completing a career-high 67.4% of his attempts with 22 touchdowns. He offers creativity and athleticism to make plays with his legs.

Conversely, Altmyer faces limitations due to deficiencies in size and arm strength, which consequently lower his ceiling as an NFL prospect.

On tape, Vanderbilt's Walter Taylor Pavia is described as an absolute gamer and arguably the greatest quarterback in Commodores history. His competitive, never-say-die attitude should at least secure him an opportunity as an undrafted free agent.