The 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby, known as the “Run for the Roses,” is scheduled for Saturday, May 2nd. As of today, Renegade is the +400 favorite to win America’s most famous horse race.

Current Favorites

The odds for the 2026 Kentucky Derby currently place Arkansas Derby winner Renegade as the betting favorite. Following closely behind is Commandment, victor of the Florida Derby.

Renegade’s Rise

Renegade initially struggled, losing his first three starts as a two-year-old. However, his performance has significantly improved this season, with wins in both the Sam F. Davis Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. He is trained by two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher and ridden by five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.

Commandment’s Strengths

Brad Cox trains Commandment, with Flavien Prat as the jockey. The horse has won four consecutive races, demonstrating consistent improvement as distances increase. Despite pedigree concerns regarding distance, Commandment continues to perform strongly.

Other Contenders

Chief Wallabee, trained by Bill Mott and ridden by Junior Alvarado, is also a notable contender. He has finished in the money in all three of his starts, including performances in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. It’s worth noting that Sovereignty, the 2025 Kentucky Derby champion, did not win the Florida Derby prior to his victory.

Looking Ahead

Reagan’s Honor is preparing for the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 4th, following a strong performance in an allowance race at the Fair Grounds on February 19th. A successful showing could significantly improve his odds.

Historical Trends

Historically, the favorite has won the Kentucky Derby 40 times out of the last 117 races, a success rate of 34.2%. The favorite has also placed in the top three 74 times, achieving an “in-the-money” rate of 63.3%.

Upset Victories

Despite the favorite’s strong record, recent history has seen upsets. Country House won in 2019 at 65/1, and Rich Strike surpassed that with an 80/1 victory in 2022.

Since 1956, only two Kentucky Derby winners have won the race after a layoff of six weeks or more.

The article was written by Robert M. Criscola, a publishing editor with a background in sports wagering and horse racing journalism.