Who will win the 2026 MLB Cy Young Awards? As the 2026 MLB season begins, several starting pitchers are already impacting the Cy Young markets with their early performances.

Early Frontrunners

Paul Skenes (Pittsburgh Pirates)

Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes had a rocky debut in 2026, failing to escape the first inning. However, his statistical dominance since entering the league keeps him as a top contender. Skenes led the NL in ERA and WHIP over the past two years and ranks in the top two in strikeout rate, xFIP, and WAR.

George Kirby (Seattle Mariners)

Seattle Mariners pitcher George Kirby is also a strong early pick. He has posted a respectable 3.52 xFIP, along with the lowest BB% in baseball and the fourth-highest WAR among American League arms over the past three years. Kirby also benefits from pitching in the pitcher-friendly environment of T-Mobile Park and has demonstrated durability, topping 190 innings in both 2023 and 2024.

Notable Performances & Overreactions

Dylan Cease (Toronto Blue Jays)

Toronto Blue Jays strikeout artist Dylan Cease made a splash with 12 strikeouts in his opening start, significantly improving his AL Cy Young odds. Despite this impressive debut, skepticism remains about his ability to limit damage in the competitive AL East. Cease has a solid but unspectacular 4.18 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 3.69 xFIP across 534 1/3 innings over the past three years.

Ethan Misiorowski (Milwaukee Brewers)

Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Ethan Misiorowski dazzled in his big-league debut last summer, showing promising trajectory. However, workload concerns may hinder his chances. Misiorowski topped out at 129 1/3 innings across the majors and Triple-A last year, and the Brewers will likely prioritize his health for the postseason. This makes accumulating the necessary counting stats for a Cy Young award challenging.

Looking Ahead

While early season performances can lead to overreactions, the current outlook positions Skenes and Kirby as strong contenders for the 2026 Cy Young Awards. Skenes’ statistical profile and potential narrative upside make him a particularly interesting pick as the season progresses.

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Neil Parker, the author, is a sports fan with a numbers-based approach to handicapping and a background in education.