AccuWeather’s long-range forecast anticipates a volatile summer for the United States in 2026, characterized by widespread heat, an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and flooding, and fluctuating drought conditions, all influenced by the developing El Niño pattern.

Hotter-Than-Average Temperatures Expected

The summer of 2026 is shaping up to be a potentially challenging season across the United States. Forecasters predict a hotter-than-average summer for most of the contiguous U.S., with minimal areas expected to experience temperatures below the historical average. This pervasive heat will likely drive up energy demand, potentially leading to higher electricity bills for households nationwide.

West and Northeast to Face Intense Heat

The most intense heat is anticipated to concentrate in the Northwest and Great Basin regions, encompassing states like California, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. This raises concerns about wildfires and worsening drought conditions. The Northeast is also bracing for a ‘late surge of heat and higher humidity,’ which will amplify the perceived temperature and contribute to warmer nighttime temperatures.

Increased Risk of Severe Weather

Simultaneously, the Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley are expected to experience a period of heightened thunderstorm activity, particularly from early to midsummer. The risk of severe storms is predicted to shift eastward as the season progresses.

Tornado and Derecho Potential

Experts warn of a potential for near or above-average tornado activity in June and July, though this threat may diminish in August. Even with a reduced tornado risk, severe thunderstorms, including the potential for derechos – powerful, widespread windstorms – will remain a concern throughout the summer. These storms can produce winds exceeding 100 mph, capable of causing significant damage and prolonged power outages.

Fluctuating Drought and Flood Risks

The forecast highlights a contrasting pattern of flooding and drought. Summer thunderstorms could offer some relief from drought conditions in the mid-Atlantic and parts of the central U.S., but they also elevate the risk of flash flooding, particularly in areas like the Texas Hill Country, the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley.

Regional Drought Concerns

The Southwest and southern Rockies face similar flood risks as the North American monsoon season begins and tropical moisture moves northward. Conversely, drought conditions are expected to worsen in the Northwest and Northern California, and may intensify along parts of the Gulf Coast and the southern and central Appalachians.

The development of El Niño early in the summer is expected to play a significant role in shaping these weather patterns, influencing both the tropics and the broader weather across the United States throughout the remainder of 2026. The monsoon season is predicted to be near average but sporadic, with potential for early arrival of moisture but also periods of dryness. Tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific could offer intermittent relief but also contribute to flash flooding and fire risk.