A record 225,550 residents cast early ballots in Toronto's 2026 municipal race. Current polling suggests Mayor Olivia Chow maintains a narrow advantage over Brad Bradford heading into the final stretch.
The 225,550-voter surge since 1998 amalgamation
The City of Toronto has seen an unprecedented spike in early civic engagement, with 225,550 eligible voters casting ballots during the advance window from October 6 to October 11. According to city data, this figure represents a nearly 72 per cent increase compared to the 2023 mayoral byelection and nearly doubles the turnout seen in the 2022 general municipal election.
The momentum peaked on Sunday, October 11, when 53,363 Torontonians voted in a single day. As reported by the source, this smashed the previous single-day record of 38,621 set in 2023. This surge suggests a heightened level of urgency among the electorate that far exceeds the participation levels seen in the last decade.
Olivia Chow's 5-point lead and the battle for renters
A recent survey by Liaison Strategies, which polled 1,000 Torontonians between October 8 and October 9, shows incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow leading Brad Bradford by five points. Among decided and leaning voters, Olivia Chow holds 51 per cent of the support compared to 46 per cent for Brad Bradford, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
The divide in support is starkly demographic. Among those who rent their homes, Olivia Chow leads 57 per cent to 40 per cent. this support is likely tied to her platform of boosting the city's rent bank program, creating a task force to target bad landlords, and making the TTC free after 10 rides per week to lower commuting costs.
Bradford's property tax freeze and the homeowner appeal
While Olivia Chow dominates among renters, Brad Bradford leads among homeowners 50 per cent to 45 per cent. Brad Bradford has centered his campaign on fiscal relief, promising a one-year freeze on property taxes, a reduction in the land transfer tax, and a 25 per cent cut to water bills for Toronto residents.
This split reflects a broader tension in Toronto's municipal politics: a clash between those prioritizing social infrastructure and transit accessibility versus those seeking direct relief from the city's high cost of living. The competing visions of the two candidates have turned the 2026 race into a referendum on whether the city should prioritize expanded services or tax mitigation.
The gap between advance turnout and October 26 results
Despite the record-breaking early numbers, several questions remain before the final polls close on October 26. while Olivia Chow's team attributes the early lead to a superior "ground game" of volunteers, Brad Bradford's campaign argues that the high turnout is actually a sign that voters are eager for a change in leadership. It remains unclear if the 225,550 early voters are representative of the wider population or if they lean more heavily toward one candidate.
Furthermore, the source relies on a single poll from Liaison Strategies to gauge the race. Without additional polling data, it is difficult to determine if the five-point lead is a stable trend or a snapshot of a volatile electorate. The final outcome will depend on whether the remaining undecided voters align with the renter-centric policies of Olivia Chow or the tax-cut promises of Brad Bradford.
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