The Oklahoma City Thunder are preparing for a highly anticipated second-round playoff series against the Los Angeles Lakers, one of the NBA’s most prominent franchises.

Playoff Series and Draft Lottery Overlap

As the Thunder begin their best-of-seven matchup, the NBA Draft Lottery looms just days away. The outcome of the series against the Lakers will undoubtedly impact the team’s morale and future outlook.

Draft Lottery Odds

The Thunder have a 7.1 percent chance of securing a top-four pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. This breaks down to a 1.5 percent chance at the No. 1 pick, 1.7 percent at No. 2, 1.9 percent at No. 3, and 2.1 percent at No. 4.

Potential Draft Positions

While a top-four pick is possible, the most likely scenario is the Thunder selecting at No. 12, with an 86.1 percent probability. There is also a 6.7 percent chance they could drop to No. 13. The team has previously held the No. 12 pick four times since 2003, including twice while based in Seattle.

Challenges of the New CBA

The new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) presents challenges for building a sustainable contender. Restrictive rules impact even teams like the Thunder that rely on homegrown talent.

Contract Decisions Loom

The Thunder face upcoming contract extensions for key players including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren. Decisions regarding Lu Dort and Isaiah Hartenstein will also need to be made this summer.

Importance of the Draft

To maintain their competitive edge, the Thunder must excel in the NBA Draft. Securing impactful, cost-controlled talent is vital for long-term success. The elimination of the L.A. Clippers from the Play-In Tournament has already benefited the Thunder, regardless of the lottery results.

Chet Holmgren is expected to take on a larger role as the team strives to solidify its contender status. Rylan Stiles, host of the Locked On Thunder Podcast and Lead Beat Writer for Inside the Thunder, is a credentialed media member covering the team. He is also an award-winning play-by-play broadcaster for the Oklahoma Sports Network.