The Chicago Bears enter the 2026 season facing the most difficult strength of schedule in the NFL. Their 17-game calendar features eight matchups against teams that reached the playoffs last year, including the two finalists of Super Bowl LX.

The .550 Winning Percentage Hurdle

According to the report, the Chicago Bears are staring down a slate where their opponents boasted a combined .550 winning percentage in 2025. This statistical mountain includes games against Buffalo, Carolina, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and both the Green Bay Packers and the Seattle Seahawks. Specifically, five of the Chicago Bears' opponents secured at least 11 victories during the previous campaign.

This level of difficulty is historically daunting.. The report notes that only three of the last 10 NFL teams tasked with the league's hardest schedule managed to reach the postseason, with the 2021 Pittsburgh Steelers and 2023 Philadelphia Eagles both exiting in the wild-card round. The last team to actually win a playoff game after starting with the toughest strength of schedule was the 2016 Atlanta Falcons.

The Super Bowl LX Gauntlet

The peak of the Chicago Bears' challenge involves facing the two most dominant teams from the previous season. The Chicago Bears will travel to face the Super Bowl LX champion Seattle Seahawks and host the runner-up New England Patriots at Soldier Field. Both the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots finished the 2025 regular season with identical 14-3 records.

Coach Ben Johnson has acknowledged the steep climb,stating that the NFC North division has only improved during the offseason.. The necessity for the Chicago Bears to perform at an elite level is underscored by the fact that their divisional rivals are not facing similar headwinds; for instance, the Detroit Lions possess the sixth-easiest strength of schedule at .467.

Caleb Williams' Eight Fourth-Quarter Comebacks

Despite the grim statistics, the Chicago Bears have a recent history of defying the odds. Last season, the team navigated the second-hardest strength of schedule to secure 11 wins, largely by winning seven games decided by a single score. This resilience was driven by quarterback Caleb Williams, who led the Chicago Bears to eight fourth-quarter comebacks.

The eight comebacks orchestrated by Caleb Williams tie a franchise and league-era record held by the 2016 Detroit Lions and the 2022 Minnesota Vikings. This ability to execute in high-pressure, late-game scenarios is the primary reason why DraftKings Sportsbook has set the Chicago Bears' over/under win total at 9.5.

The +320 Odds vs. Detroit's Advantage

While the Chicago Bears are currently the third-favorite to repeat as NFC North champions with +320 odds, they trail the Detroit Lions (+185) and the Green Bay Packers (+195).. The disparity in schedule difficulty suggests that the betting markets may be weighing the Chicago Bears' talent against a brutal path to the playoffs.

One critical unknown remains: whether the Chicago Bears can maintain their trend of one-score victories against a higher caliber of opponent. The source reports on the difficulty of the schedule and the team's past success, but it does not provide insight into whether the Chicago Bears have made specific roster additions to bolster the defense for these 2026 matchups. Furthermore, it remains to be seen if the offense can sustain its late-game efficiency against the 14-3 defenses of Seattle and New England.