The WNBA has scheduled its annual draft lottery for November 15. both the Houston Comets and Toronto currently possess a 33% probability of securing the top selection.
A 33% Deadlock Between Houston and Toronto
The upcoming WNBA draft lottery, scheduled for November 15, features a statistical tie at the very top. According to the report,both the Houston Comets and Toronto hold a 33% chance to land the number one overall pick. This parity creates a high-pressure environment for both franchises as they vie for the opportunity to select a generational talent.
The Houston Comets, who the report identifies as formerly the Connecticut Sun, hold a unique position because they cannot fall lower than the third pick. This is due to their 1-2 record against Toronto during the 2026 season. Meanwhile, Toronto is guaranteed at least the fourth choice, ensuring they remain in the hunt for top-tier talent regardless of the lottery outcome. Washington holds a 16% chance, a position significantly strengthened by the fact that the Mystics now own the Chicago Sky's first-round selection via a prior trade.
The JuJu Watkins Uncertainty and the USC Factor
The primary prize of the April 12 draft is widely considered to be star guard JuJu Watkins. however, her availability remains a significant variable for teams like Houston and Toronto. As the report notes, Watkins is currently recovering from an ACL injury that kept her off the court for the entirety of last season.
Beyond physical recovery, there is a strategic question regarding her collegiate future. Because the NCAA now permits players to utilize a fifth year of eligibility, Watkins could choose to return to the University of Southern California (USC) for another season. If she does, she would be removed from the draft pool entirely, potentially altering the entire landscape for the teams currently eyeing her as the top prospect.
One-Year Odds vs. Two-Season Calculations
The WNBA has employed different methodologies to determine the lottery standings for the various franchises. While the Houston Comets, Washington Mystics, Seattle, Los Angeles, and Phoenix Mercury had their odds calculated based on records spanning two seasons, Toronto and Portland are being judged on a single year of league play. This distinction highlights the rapid evolution of the league's newer or transitioning rosters. The remaining field includes Seattle at 9.3%, Portland at 5.2%, and Los Angeles at 3.6%. The lottery will be conducted live at 7:30 p.m. EST on November 15, imemdiately following the UConn-Louisville women's basketball game.
Will the NCAA's fifth-year rule stall the draft's star power?
The most pressing unknown for WNBA executives is not the lottery order itself, but the actual composition of the draft class. The report highlights that the NCAA's allowance of a fifth year of eligibility means the final list of entrants is far from settled. While names like Hannah Hidalgo of Notre Dame and Madison Booker of Texas are being discussed, the true depth of the talent pool remains unverified.
Until these players make their official decisions, the WNBA is essentially drafting against a moving target. The lottery will reveal the order, but the actual impact of that order may not be clear until the players commit to the professional ranks.
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