The 2026 FIFA World Cup, beginning June 11 in North America, is exepcted to feature several surprise contenders. Analysts from TRT World identify nations like Türkiye, Japan, and Norway as potential "dark horses" capable of upsetting traditional powerhouses.

How the 48-team expansion opens the door for upsets

The structural evolution of the FIFA World Cup is creating a new environment for underdog success. According to TRT World, the tournament field has expanded to 48 teams and now includes an additional knockout round, a change that analysts suggest could allow well-organized teams to progress much further than in previous iterations.

This expansion reflects a broader trend in international football to democratize the game's biggest stage, though it introduces significant volatility. By adding more teams and a Round of 32, the tournament increases the mathematical probability of a "Cinderella story," where a lesser-known squad captures the global imagination by eliminating a top-seeded favorite early in the competition.

Arda Guler and the 'Crescent Stars' talent surge

Türkiye is positioned as one of the strongest candidates for a deep run in the 2026 tournament. as reported by TRT World, the current generation of the "Crescent Stars" is viewed by analysts as more talented than the squad that reached the semi-finals in 2002, blending experienced veterans with high-ceiling young prospects.

The core of this potential surge rests on elite European club talent. The report specifically highlights Real Madrid's Arda Guler, Juventus' Kenan Yildiz, and Inter Milan's Hakan Calhanoglu as the primary engines that could drive Türkiye toward a late-stage knockout match.

From Erling Haaland to Kubo: The star power of the outsiders

The gap between traditional football giants and the "dark horses" is narrowing due to the distribution of world-class talent across more nations. Norway, for instance, possesses immense offensive firepower in Manchester City's Erling Haaland and Arsenal's Martin Odegaard, while Japan relies on the precision of Kubo, a winger often described as the "Japanese Messi" for his ability to exploit tight spaces.

Other nations are similarly armed with top-tier assets. TRT World notes that Morocco features PSG's Achraf Hakimi and Real Madrid's Brahim Diaz, while Iran's hopes are pinned on players like Sardar Azmoun of Arsenal and Abdollah Pouran of Manchester City. This concentration of "superstar" individuals means that a single match can be decided by a world-class player even if the overall team ranking is lower.

The Group C hurdle and the unpredictability of the Round of 32

While talent is essential, the specific path through the tournament brackets will determine who actually succeeds. For Japan, the road is particularly treacherous; if they win their group, they face the runners-up from Group C, but if they finish second, they must face the Group C winners. This specific grouping creates a high-stakes bottleneck that could end their run prematurely.

There are still critical unknowns regarding the exact matchups for other contenders. While the report outlines that Türkiye could face third-placed teams from Group B, E, F, I, or J if they top their group, the specific identities of those teams remain a variable. Furthermore, while experts like Tom Matson of GOAL and writer Amee Ruszkai suggest Colombia, Switzerland, and Ecuador as threats , the source does not provide the same level of detailed path analysis for these nations as it does for Türkiye and Japan.