The $30 million underdog story

The Portland Fire,a WNBA expansion team, has defied expectations with a 5-3 record, including impressive wins over the New York Liberty twice.

Entering the season, the Fire were tied with the Connecticut Sun (who have just one win) with the worst odds to win the WNBA Finals.

Now, they have a chance to make a statement against a title contender, the Atlanta Dream.

Atlanta's high expectations

The Dream, led by Angel Reese and Allisha Gray, are favored by 9.5 points,but they have started the season solidly at 4-2.

However, they are coming off a loss to the Minnesota Lynx on Wednesday, and oddsmakers have installed them as 9.5-point favorites for Friday's contest.

Atlanta has high expectations in 2026 after acquiring All-Star Angel Reese in a blockbuster trade.

The matchup to watch

The matchup is particularly favorable for Angel Reese, the star forward acquired by Atlanta, who has been a force on the boards this season, averaging 10.8 rebounds per game .

This is because Portland ranks last in the league in rebound percentage at 46.7 percent, making it a decisive factor in the game.

Portland's defense has been vulnerable inside, and Reese could exploit that to help the Dream control the tempo and generate second-chance opportunities.

Can the Fire keep it close?

Portland has covered in three straight games and has covered twice as double-digit underdogs this season,winning both of those games outright.

Atlanta's net rating of plus-1.9 is only marginally better than Portland's minus-1.4,despite the Fire suffering two blowout losses by 17 and 15 ponts.

Moreover,three of Atlanta's four wins have come by five points or fewer, suggesting they are not as dominant away from home.

Portland has built momentum with its three-game winning streak and will be energized by the home crowd.