The NBA announced a sweeping overhaul of its draft lottery that will take effect for the 2027, 2028 and 2029 drafts. The Board of Governors approved an expansion to 16 lottery teams, a new penalty for the three poorest records, and a ban on consecutive No. 1 selections, all designed to reduce the incentive to tank.

Lottery expands from 14 to 16 teams,adding two extra play‑in clubs

Under the new framework, any non‑playoff or non‑play‑in team receives three lottery balls, while the three teams with the worst records and the four play‑in clubs that miss the playoffs receive only two balls each. This change, reported by the NBA, widens the pool from 14 to 16 participants and gives eighth‑seeded teams a 2.7% chance at the top pick, a figure that did not exist under the old system .

Odds flattened: fourth‑through‑tenth worst now hold an 8.1% chance at No. 1

The league recalculated the probabliity tiers so that teams ranked fourth to tenth worst now enjoy an 8.1% chance of landing the No. 1 pick, a 24% chance at a top‑three slot and a 39% chance at a top‑five selection. By contrast, the three worst teams see their No. 1 odds dip to 5.4%, according to the NBA’s release.. This flattening means twice as many teams now have a 28% chance at a top‑five pick, and every lottery participant is guaranteed at least a 35% chance of a top‑10 slot.

Ban on consecutive No. 1 picks and three‑year top‑five restriction

A new rule prevents any franchise from holding the No. 1 overall pick in back‑to‑back drafts or from receiving a top‑five selection in three consecutive years, regardless of which team ultimately owns the pick. The measure directly targets the San Antonio Spurs’ recent streak of top‑five picks (Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper) from 2023‑2025, a pattern the league cited as evidence of systematic tanking.

Trade‑protecting picks now barred from top‑five slots

The reforms also stipulate that any pick already subject to a “pick protection” clause cannot fall within the top five. The Memphis Grizzlies, the lone dissenting vote at the Board meeting, highlighted this impact with their 2027 unprotected first‑round pick from the Utah Jazz, which can no longer land in the top five because the Jazz already own the No. 2 pick in 2025. This retroactive devaluation could affect numerous previously traded unprotected picks.

Who still might game the system? The “relegation zone” dilemma

While the NBA acknowledges that tanking cannot be eradicated entirely, the league expects teams to avoid finishing in the so‑called “relegation zone” – the three worst records – because those clubs receive fewer lottery balls. The possibility of deliberately missing the play‑in tournament to gain an extra ball exists, but the league argues the loss of playoff bonuses and player morale makes such a strategy unlikely. As the NBA noted, the reforms are intended to push elite prospects toward clubs already nearer contention rather than perennial rebuilders.