A discarded SpaceX rocket stage is projected to accidentally strike the lunar surface next Wednesday. Experts anticipate the collision will occur at seven times the speed of sound, creating a plume of debris and a new crater.
A 5,400 mph collision near Einstein Crater
The incoming SpaceX rocket upper stage is currently on a trajectory that will lead to a high-velocity impact on the moon's sunlit western limb. According to the report, space tracking expert Bill Gray predicts the rocket will strike the surface at approximately 5,400 mph, specifically targeting an area near the Einstein Crater. The kinetic energy of this collision is expected to be immense, with the impact force estimated to be equivalent to three tons of TNT.
While the flash of the impact will likely be too brief and dim for amateur stargazers to see with the naked eye, the aftermath will be more prominent. The collision is expected to eject a stream of lunar material several miles into space, which will remain visible to powerful telescopes for tens of minutes. This event provides a rare, albeit accidental, opportunity for scientists to observe the behavior of lunar dust and rubble in a low-gravity environment.
How Danuri and NASA's LRO will document the 90-foot crater
The scientific community is treating this accidental crash as a valuable data-gathering mission. Benjamin Fernando of the Los Alamos National Laboratory anticipates that the impact will carve out a crater roughly 90 feet across and 16 feet deep. While such a feature is too small to be seen from Earth, it will be clearly visible to orbiting spacecraft. As reported in the source, NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea's Danuri lunar orbiter are positioned to capture high-resolution before-and-after imagery of the site.
The timing of the observation is particularly tight for the South Korean mission. Benjamin Fernando and his team indicate that the Danuri orbiter will pass within just one or two miles of the SpaceX rocket a mere two minutes before the final impact. This proximity allows researchers to study the debris plume and the resulting crater to better understand the hazards that future human astronauts will face when landing on the lunar surface.
The 2022 Chinese rocket crash and the risk of orbital clutter
This event is not an isolated incident, but rather part of a worrying trend of "space junk" impacting celestial bodies. this SpaceX collision will be the second known instance of a dead rocket accidentally hitting the moon, following a 2022 event where a Chinese rocket segment created two craters on the lunar far side. Bill Gray has noted that the region of space is becoming increasingly crowded, suggesting that the frequency of such accidents may rise as more commercial and national entities launch hardware into orbit.
The incident underscores a growing tension between the rapid expansion of the commercial space sector and the lack of rigorous debris management. The rocket in question was used approximately one year ago to deploy two lunar landers, but its upper stage was left to drift. This highlights a systemic issue where the "disposable" nature of current rocket architecture creates long-term navigational hazards for all spacefaring nations.
Why SpaceX didn't nudge the stage into a solar orbit
One of the most pressing questions surrounding this event is why the collision was not prevented. Space experts mentioned in the report suggest that the crash could have been avoided if the SpaceX upper stage had been nudged into a stable orbit around the sun, a common practice for decommissioning spent stages. It remains unclear whether this was a technical failure, a calculated risk, or a simple oversight in the mission's end-of-life plan.
Furthermore, the source does not clarify if SpaceX attempted any corrective maneuvers or if the rocket lacked the remaining fuel to perform such a shift.. As the moon becomes a primary target for the Artemis missions and other international lunar programs, the lack of a standardized "traffic control" or disposal protocol for spent stages remains a significant gap in space safety.
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