Professor Jeffrey Rosenthal and Jennifer Dmetrichuk analyzed Ontario's unexpected death records from 2009 to 2023. Their findings, published in Chance magazine, show no statistical increase in mortality during full moons, Halloween, or Friday the 13th.
The 2009-2023 Ontario Coroner Database
The research was made possible through a massive dataset from Ontario's Office of the Chief Coroner, which was originally compiled to study mortality rates during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the report, Jeffrey Rosenthal used this database to test whether specific dates associated with bad luck actually saw an uptick in unexpected deaths. The results were decisively mundane: mortality rates on Friday the 13th, full-moon periods, and Halloween remained close to the overall average.
This study, titled "Friday the 13th, Full Moons, and Holiday Blues: Ontario Death Date Distributions," suggests that the perceived danger of these dates is a psychological construct rather than a biological or environmental reality. By applying rigorous statistical analysis to over a decade of provincial data, Rosenthal and Dmetrichuk demonstrated that these dates are, for all intents and purposes, just another day on the calendar.
Winter Mortality and the Holiday Period
While the search for superstitious patterns yielded nothing, the data did reveal genuine trends in Ontario's death rates. As reported in Chance, the researchers observed elevated death rates during the winter months, including the holiday season. This spike is attributed to the physical challenges and health risks associated with Ontario's harsh winter climate, rather than any mystical or unlucky influence.
This distinction highlights a critical gap in how humans perceive risk. People often fear the arbitrary "unluckiness" of a date like Friday the 13th while ignoring the tangible, data-backed dangers of seasonal weather shifts. For the medical community, the winter spike is a known variable, but for the general public, the narrative of a "cursed" day often carries more weight than the reality of a cold snap.
Confirmation Bias and the October 13 Birthday
The motivation for the study was partly personal; Jeffrey Rosenthal was born on Friday, October 13.. This personal connection led him to explore the intersection of chance and belief, a theme he previously explored in his 2018 book, Knock on Wood: Luck, Chance, and the Meaning of Everything. Rosenthal notes that he has lived a fortunate life despite his birth date, serving as a living counter-example to the superstition.
The persistence of these myths is driven by confirmation bias, where individuals notice and remember bad events that occur on Friday the 13th while ignoring similar events on other days. According to the report, this psychological mechanism provides a sense of comfort by giving people a reason for random tragedies, transforming a chaotic world into one with predictable, albeit unlucky, patterns.
Why the Chance publication may not sway superstition believers
Despite the hard evidence, a significant question remains:can statistical proof actually dismantle a deeply ingrained cultural myth? Rosenthal himself admitted he is unsure if the study will change the minds of those who hold these superstitions. The research focuses on the absence of a pattern, but for many, the anecdotal "feeling" of bad luck outweighs a provincial database.
Furthermore, the source focuses exclusively on mortality data. It remains unverified whether the fear of Friday the 13th creates a self-fulfilling prophecy through increased anxeity or cautious behavior that might actually lower certain types of accidents, even if it doesn't affect the overall death rate. The study proves the day isn't inherently unlucky, but it doesn't fully addreess the behavioral impact of the belief itself.
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