Condominium sales in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) surged in the third quarter of 2026, according to a new Urbanation study. The doubling of sales was primarily driven by large-scale bulk purchases from investment groups rather than traditional residential buyers.
Institutional investors captured 45% of Q3 condo sales
Institutional investors accounted for 45 percent of all new condo sales in the third quarter of 2026, according to the Urbanation report. Total new condominium apartment sales in the GTHA reached 760 units during this period, representing a year-over-year increase of more than 100 percent. This growth marks the second consecutive quarter of rising sales, suggesting a potential, albeit uneven, rebound in the sector.
The surge was largely concentrated in finished buildings,where sales reached a record 648 units. This volume allowed developers to clear significant amounts of accumulated inventory, but the data suggests this movement is being fueled by professional entities rather than the general public.
The failure of HST relief to attract individual buyers
The removal of the Harmonised Sales Tax (HST) from recently built units failed to stimulate significant demand among individual end-users. while the tax relief was intended to lower selling prices and encourage residential purchases, John Pasalis of Move Smartly Realty Inc. observed that consumer appetite remained weak despite these price reductions.
This trend reflects a broader disconnect between current market prices and the historical costs of construction. As reported by Urbanation, many buyers who entered the pre-construction market five years ago are now defaulting because their original purchase prices sit well above current market values. This creates a cycle where developers must rely on aggressive discounts to attract institutional buyers who can absorb the risk and hold units for long-term rental income .
Jesta Group’s $500 million downtown Toronto expansion
Montreal-based Jesta Group has emerged as a major player in this institutional shift, announcing a $500-million purchase of unsold condominiums in downtown Toronto this past May. The group has signaled an aggressive expansion strategy,with plans to acquire over 1,000 properties within the city.
Other large-scale entities are also moving into the space to capitalize on discounted inventory. The report notes that buyers range from small family offices to massive corporate entities like High Art Capital , which has reportedly secured provincial backing to acquire thousands of unsold units.
A 12-quarter slump in pre-construction sales
Pre-construction activity in the GTHA has entered a prolonged period of decline, reaching only 60 units sold in the third quarter of 2026. This marks the twelfth consecutive quarter of falling sales, highlighting a stark contrast to the activity seen in completed buildings. Shaun Hildebrand, president of Urbanation, warned that while the market may eventually find a price point that attracts buyers, sustained growth is unlikely until the supply side recovers.
The lack of new development poses a long-term risk to the region's housing stability. With construction starts falling to historic lows, the GTHA could face a significant supply shortage by the end of the decade. Developers remain hesitant to start new projects because the current selling prices often do not align with rising production costs and the high level of market risk.
Uncertainty regarding High Art Capital's provinical backing
The Urbanation report leaves several critical details unaddressed regarding the specific players driving this recovery. while the report mentions that High Art Capital secured provincial backing to acquire thousands of units, the identity of the specific government entity or the terms of that support remain unverified. Additionally, the report focuses heavily on the success of institutional buyers, leaving the perspective of the developers who are forced to negotiate these steep discounts largely unexamined.
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