The betting markets for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination currently show Marco Rubio as the frontrunner, but a new analysis argues that J.D.. Vance's odds are severely undervalued. According to the report, historical data from Richard Nixon onward demonstrates that vice presidents who make a serious bid for their party's nomination succeed either immediately or in a later cycle roughly seven times out of ten , making Vance's current price a significant bargain.

The 70% historical rate that markets are missing

Every vice president from Nixon to the present who seriously pursued the nomination either won it right away or in a future cycle, the analysis says.. Only Dan Quayle and Joe Biden were denied their turn, but Quayle's run was weak and delaed, while Biden had to wait a full term and faced a formidable opponent backed by the Clinton network.. By contrast, Nixon, Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale, George H.W. Bush, and Al Gore all secured their party's nod. Based solely on that track record, the repot calculates that Vance's odds should be around 70 percent, making his current markt price a significant bargain.

Why Marco Rubio at 26-30 cents looks overvalued

The same analysis argues that Rubio, though competent as Secretary of State, is overvalued at 26 to 30 cents. The report notes that competence is not always a prerequisite for the presidency—citing former President Joe Biden as a counterexample—and that Rubio's rising odds are more a reflection of his current performance than a true indicator of his 2028 chances. A fair value for Rubio, according to the report, would be around 20 cents, leaving him a candidate to watch only at that lower price.

The Trump endorsement wildcard that could flip everything

The biggest variable remains former President Donald Trump's endorsement. The report estimates a 20 percent chance that Trump abandons Vance—a scenario it treats as a stretch unless Vance severely missteps , which a shrewd operator would avoid. Trump's public musings have already boosted Rubio, but for Vance, the stakes are existential: it's essentially 'president or bust.' Being stranded as vice president while Rubio is promoted would be intolerable, and Vance would likely prefer to return to Ohio rather than face such humiliation. As the source notes, Trump cannot pick both for the 2028 ticket, and the two men's ambitions may ultimately clash.

What remains unknown about Vance's true intentions

The analysis concedes that Vance might opt out for family reasons or health concerns—though it deems that unlikely given his age. It also leaves open the question of whether Trump's endorsement alone can overcome the historical pattern or whether Vance would need to build independent GOP support. No polling or internal campaign data is cited,so the report's thesis rests entirely on the historical precedent of VPs. Whether betting markets will adjust before 2028 or whether other candidates—such as Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley—enter the race is not addressed in the source.