Labour is facing a potential exodus of votes from British Muslim voters due to growing discontent over the party’s position on the Israel-Hamas conflict. A recent poll reveals a substantial shift in voting intentions, potentially impacting the upcoming local elections.

Decline in Labour Support

Research conducted by the Policy Exchange think tank shows that a significant portion of Muslim voters are now considering alternatives to Labour. Three in five would contemplate supporting a pro-Gaza independent candidate to prevent a Labour victory, while almost half would consider backing the Green Party to send a message to the government.

Dramatic Shift from 2019

This represents a dramatic change from the 2019 General Election, when Labour secured 80% of the Muslim vote under Jeremy Corbyn. Support has since fallen, with an estimated 20% national decline, and even more pronounced in certain constituencies.

Warning Signs in Recent Elections

The Green Party’s surprising victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election in February, with a 26.4% swing in an area with a 28% Muslim population, is viewed as an early indicator of this trend. The Green Party now has 27% support among Muslim voters, a 10-point increase compared to their general election polling average.

Divergent Perspectives

The poll highlights a growing divergence in perspectives between Muslim voters and the broader British population regarding the Israel-Gaza conflict. Muslim voters are five times more likely than the average Briton to state that their vote will be influenced by this issue, with one in four indicating it will be a determining factor.

Concerns and Complexities

The survey also reveals concerning views within the Muslim community regarding certain geopolitical actors. A quarter of British Muslims express a favourable view of Hamas, while a similar proportion hold an unfavourable one. Additionally, more Muslims hold a favourable opinion of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Justification of Violence

A significant minority believe violence can be justified in response to perceived insults against Islam, a sentiment far more prevalent among Muslim voters than the general public. These findings suggest a complex interplay of factors driving the shift in voting intentions.

Electoral Irregularities

The research also raises concerns about potential irregularities in the electoral process. One-seventh of Muslims in polled areas reported that their postal votes were collected by campaigners – a practice illegal since 2022, and nearly double the rate among general voters.

Survey Details

The survey encompassed over 1,000 British Muslim voters across key metropolitan and regional areas, including Greater London, the West Midlands, Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire, and parts of Lancashire, South Yorkshire, and Merseyside.

Expert Warning

Dr. Rakib Ehsan, the lead author of the report, warns that Labour is likely to be ‘punished’ by Muslim voters in the local elections. He suggests this could lead to the election of independent candidates in cities like Birmingham and Blackburn, as well as London boroughs such as Newham. He emphasizes the fundamental differences between the general population and British Muslims regarding the prioritization of the Israel-Gaza conflict.

Perceptions of Jewish Influence

The report also touches upon perceptions of Jewish influence, with significant percentages of Muslim voters believing Jews have excessive power over the media and Parliament, and a notable proportion expressing unfavourable views towards Jewish people.