Conservative strategist Rick Wilson believes Tucker Carlson is laying the groundwork for a potential presidential bid in 2028. Wilson suggests Carlson could disrupt the anticipated competition for conservative leadership following the Trump era.

Carlson's Strategic Positioning

Wilson, a prominent figure with the Lincoln Project, detailed his analysis on Substack, arguing that Carlson’s recent appearance in The New York Times was a calculated move, not a genuine interview. He believes Carlson is actively working to distance himself from the legacy of Donald Trump.

Differentiating from Trump and Vance

According to Wilson, Carlson is subtly criticizing the current administration and creating distance from J.D. Vance, anticipating Vance will be negatively impacted by the perceived failures of the Trump presidency. This deliberate distancing aims to establish Carlson as a distinct alternative within the conservative movement.

Anticipated Competition and Primary Strategy

Wilson anticipates a crowded field of candidates vying for conservative leadership. He argues Carlson recognizes this and expects the conservative vote to be fragmented.

Rubio as a Key Rival

Senator Marco Rubio is identified as Carlson’s primary rival. Wilson draws a parallel to Donald Trump’s understanding of media dynamics in 2015, suggesting Carlson is employing a similar strategy. Wilson proposes a scenario where Carlson announces his candidacy in the summer of 2027.

Building a Personal Brand

The analysis emphasizes Carlson’s calculated approach to building a personal brand independent of Trump. This involves cultivating an image of authenticity and independence, appealing to voters disillusioned with traditional politicians.

Leveraging Media and Authenticity

Wilson suggests Carlson is employing a playbook similar to Trump’s in 2015, understanding the power of media manipulation and crafting a compelling narrative. The emphasis on “realness” is seen as crucial to appealing to voters seeking a genuine connection with their leaders.

Wilson’s analysis highlights the evolving nature of conservative politics and the potential for unconventional candidates to emerge as frontrunners, potentially reshaping the 2028 presidential election.