The $30 million toe in the water

A new analysis of polling data from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research reveals a significant and steady decline in support among independent voters for President Donald Trump during his seond term.

This erosion is particularly pronounced among independents without a college degree, a group that had initially been a cornerstone of his support .

The analysis synthesizes nearly two dozen polls conducted between July 2024 and April 2026, capturing shifts during critical periods including the 2024 election, the first 100 days of his presidency, the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill in summer 2025, the government shutdown last fall, and the early stages of the Iran war.

Erasing the education gap

While about half of independents without a college degree viewed Trump favorably around the 2024 election, that number fell to approximately one-quarter by spring 2026.

This steep decline has effectively erased the education gap that previously existed among independents, leaving the group with uniformly negative opinions of the president regardless of educational background.

The weakening of support extends to other key demographic groups that had shown signs of moving toward Trump in 2024, including Black and Hispanic independents, as well as younger voters.

A broadening coalition of dissatisfaction

With the number of Americans identifying as independents at an all-time high and these voters having contributed to Trump's 2024 victory, this growing discontent poses a substantial risk for Trump and Republicans as they head toward the 2026 midterm elections.

Tafari Torres, a senior research associate at NORC and co-author of the analysis, emphasized that while partisan views of Trump have remained relatively stable, independents continue to react to events and progressively withdraw their support.

The most rapid deterioration occurred during Trump's first 100 days in office .

Who is the unnamed buyer?

Sean Collins, another NORC research associate, noted the decline among non-college independents was both steeper and greater than the more modest drop among college-educated independents, a surprising development given that non-college voters are typically a core part of Trump's political coalition.

Among Hispanic independents, who were nearly evenly split between Trump and Kamala Harris in 2024, favorable ratings dropped from 46% around the election to a low of 15% during the shutdown, recovering only sligthly to about 25% by spring.

Younger independents also grew more disenchanted, while older independents (age 60 and above) remained more stable in their opinions.