President Donald Trump is facing negative approval ratings across all key swing states just three months before the November 3 midterm elections. Data from Civiqs indicates a significant drop in his national standing, potentially jeopardizing Republican gains in Congress.
The 13-point slide to a minus-23 net rating
The political landscape for the Republican Party has shifted dramatically since the start of the current term. According to Civiqs polling of 120,580 registered voters, President Donald Trump's national net approval has plummeted to minus 23. This represents a 13-point decline from the minus 10 net rating he held during the 2024 election cycle.
This erosion is more severe than the trends seen during previous political cycles. As the report says, this dip is noticeably larger than the net minus 10 rating Trump held prior to the 2018 midterms. For comparison, Joe Biden entered his final lap with a net approval of minus 19, suggesting that the current disapproval of President Donald Trump is reaching a more acute level of intensity.
Florida and Ohio shift into negative territory
The most critical vulnerability for the GOP lies in the battleground states.. Civiqs data reveals that President Donald Trump is now "underwater" in every single swing state, meaning his disapproval outweighs his approval. Pivotal regions including Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina have all transitioned to negative net approval ratings.
This shift is particularly alarming because these states previously provided a slight edge or a neutral balance for Republican candidates. Because the balance of power in Congress often hinges on a few thousand votes in these specific regions, the current negative sentiment suggests that President Donald Trump may no longer serve as a reliable catalyst for GOP turnout in the suburbs and moderate districts.
The 72 percent disapproval rate among young voters
The decline in popularity is not uniform, but is driven by sharp demographic divides. Among voters aged 18-34, a staggering 72 percent disapprove of President Donald Trump's performance, while only 22 percent offer their endorsement. This gap highlights a growing disconnect between the administration and the youngest segment of the electorate.
Other demographics show similar fractures. Women report a 65 percent disapproval rate compared to 30 percent approval, and independents—often the deciding factor in midterms—show a 64 percent disapproval rating. Even among non-college graduates, a group traditionally seen as a core base, disapproval sits at 55 percent against 39 percent approval, as reported by Civiqs.
Kentucky's crash from plus-23 to minus-5
While the conservative heartland remains a stronghold, even traditional red states are showing signs of volatility . Wyoming and North Dakota maintain strong net approval ratings of 19 and 18, respectively, and West Virginia remains positive at +15. However, the situation in Kentucky serves as a warning sign for the party.
Kentucky has experienced one of the most dramatic swings in the country over the last year, falling from a net approval of plus 23 to a negative 5. This suggests that the "Trump effect" is not only fading in swing states but is beginning to leak into the deep-red interior, narrowing the margins that the Republican Party typically relies upon to offset losses in liberal urban centers.
What the Civiqs data doesn't say about candidate viability
Despite the stark numbers, several critical questions remain unanswered. The Civiqs data tracks the popularity of President Donald Trump personally, but it does not clarify if down-ballot Republican candidates are successfully distancing themselves from the president to survive in swing states. It remains unknown whether the GOP is planning a strategic pivot in its messaging to mitigate this drag .
Furthermore, the source provides the disapproval figures but does not include corresponding internal polling from the Democratic Party to see if these numbers are translating into actual voter registration increases. without knowing if the 64 percent of independents who disapprove of the president are actually committed to voting for Democratic candidates, the full impact on the congressional balance remains speculative.
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