Rising gas prices and growing economic anxieties are intensifying as the conflict in Iran, initiated under President Donald Trump, becomes a significant political liability for Republicans. Democrats are leveraging concerns about the cost of living to criticize the president’s party.

Political Fallout from Iran Conflict

The White House’s attempt to justify the war in a Wednesday night address failed to halt the decline in President Trump’s approval ratings. More damaging remarks came earlier that day during an Easter luncheon, where Trump stated, “It’s not possible for us to take care of day care, Medicaid, Medicare, all these individual things. They can do it on a state basis. We have to take care of one thing: military protection.”

This prioritization of military action while dismissing domestic social programs is seen as a gift to Democratic campaign strategists. Republicans are expected to reinforce this message with a budget proposal on Friday that increases defense spending while cutting social safety nets.

Republican Concerns Grow

Former Rep. Reid Ribble (R-Wis.), who served from 2011 to 2017, expressed concern, telling HuffPost, “This is really, really bad for the midterms for Republicans.” Ribble, while generally favoring intervention in Iran with congressional approval, acknowledged that public opinion is focused on personal finances, which the war is expected to negatively impact.

“This is going to impact pricing everywhere. And people already feel like they’re stretched thin. They already feel like Washington isn’t listening to them. They already feel like health care costs too much, and groceries cost too much, and now gas costs too much,” Ribble stated.

Economic Impact and Inflation

The average cost of a gallon of gasoline has already surpassed $4, the highest in four years. Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and former economic advisor to President Joe Biden, warned that higher fuel prices will likely drive up food prices as well.

“Food inflation was already elevated. Now we have higher diesel prices, with 80% of our food moved in trucks,” Bernstein said during a press conference on Thursday. “We’re already seeing big food distributors adding surcharges… which then get passed on to the retailers and the consumer.”

Differing Timelines for Price Relief

Trump and his allies have suggested that fuel prices will decrease once the Iran conflict concludes, potentially within weeks. However, experts and market analysts predict that elevated prices will persist for several months. A senior Democratic House aide drew parallels to 2024 focus groups, where voters questioned U.S. aid to Ukraine while struggling with their own expenses.

The aide noted, “Republicans and Trump have managed not only to brand themselves with two of the most unpopular positions possible ― pro-foreign war and not doing shit to help people get by at home ― these two dynamics are completely reinforcing of one another. Every day, Republicans are making Democrats’ arguments more credible, real and believable.”