According to a new AP-NORC polling analysis, President Donald Trump's approval rating among independent voters has declined significantly during his second term. The data,compiled from nearly two dozen polls between July 2024 and April 2026, shows the erosion cuts across age, education, and racial demographics, particularly among independents without a college degree. The trend poses a growing challenge for Republicans as they head into the midterm elections, which historically punish the party in power.

Why Non-College Independents Are Turning Away

The AP-NORC analysis highlights a particularly steep drop in support among independents without a college degree, a group that has long been a cornerstone of Trump's political coalition. According to NORC researcher Sean Collins, the speed and scale of the decline among this demographic were surprising. While partisan Trump supporters remain stable, independents appear to be reacting sharply to events in his second term, including the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill,a government shutdown, and the onset of the Iran war.

Key Events That Corroded Trust: From the First 100 Days to the Iran War

The polling tracked sentiment through several pivotal moments. According to the report, independents who initially viewed Trump as strong on the economy quickly soured after he took office. The data shows that each subsequent event — the first 100 days, the legislative fight over the Big Beautiful Bill, the government shutdown, and the Iran conflict — contributed to a steady decline. Tafari Torres, a senior research associate at NORC, noted that independents 'continue to react to events and drop in their support.'

What This Means for the 2026 Midterms

Historically, midterm elections serve as a referendum on the sitting president's party. The AP-NORC data suggests that Trump's erosion among independents could be particularly damaging for Republicans, who need broad coalition support to retain control of Congress. The decline cuts across younger independents and Black and Hispanic communities that had moved toward Trump in the 2024 election — groups that were crucal to his narrow victory.

The Unanswered Question: Is the Decline Accelerating?

The AP-NORC analysis shows a steady trend through April 2026, but it does not predict future movement. The source notes that independents respond to events, and no major event is mentioned beyond the Iran war. Whether the decline continues or stabilizes remains unknown. Additionally, the analysis does not break out shifts by specific demographic subgroups beyond education and race — leaving open how different age cohorts among independents are behaving.