Analysis reveals a dramatic decline in former President Trump’s net approval rating on the economy, reaching a record low and surpassing even the ratings of presidents often cited for economic struggles. The shift is particularly pronounced among independent voters, signaling a significant challenge for any future political aspirations.

Historic Decline in Economic Approval

Recent analysis indicates a significant decline in his net approval rating on economic matters, reaching a concerning minus 32 points. This figure, compiled by Harry Enten using an aggregation of national polls, isn't merely a low point; it represents a dramatic shift in public opinion, a nearly 40-point drop within a little over a year. This rate of decline is described as exceptionally rare in presidential history.

Comparing Trump's Ratings

To put this into perspective, during a similar period in his first term, Trump enjoyed a positive net approval rating of plus two on the economy. At that time, the economy served as a crucial support system for his overall approval, mitigating the impact of controversies. However, the current situation is markedly different.

Trump now holds the lowest net economic approval rating of any president at this stage of their presidency – or any term for that matter – surpassing even his own previous performance and eclipsing that of every modern predecessor. Joe Biden, George W. Bush, and even Jimmy Carter all had higher ratings at comparable stages.

Independent Voter Shift

The erosion of support is particularly pronounced among independent voters, a crucial demographic in any election. Trump’s net approval among this group has plummeted to minus 55 points, a staggering reversal from the plus one rating he received in January 2025.

This represents a 56-point swing, a shift Harry Enten characterizes as extraordinary. During his first term, independents generally viewed Trump’s economic performance as neutral at this point. Now, they have demonstrably and decisively turned against him.

Implications for the Future

Enten emphasizes that independents are actively ‘abandoning’ Trump, contributing significantly to the broader decline in his overall public standing. Such substantial and rapid shifts in public opinion are uncommon, typically found in historical analyses rather than observed in real-time political events. Historically, such collapses have a profound impact on a presidency, severely limiting a leader’s political maneuverability and complicating the passage of policy initiatives.

The implications of this trend suggest a challenging path forward for any potential future political endeavors by the former president, as the economic narrative has shifted dramatically against him.