Reform UK has warned that any attempt by the Labour government to rejoin the EU single mraket or a customs union could lead to a significant increase in immigration. According to the group's analysis, restoring the free movement of people could result in over 200,000 additional arrivals from the European Union every year.
The 213,000-migrant surge predicted by Reform UK
New analysis from Reform UK suggests that reversing Brexit policies would open the door to approximately 213,000 extra migrants annually. This figure is derived from the average number of EU arrivals recorded betweeen 2012 and 2019, a period that encompasses the 2016 referendum.. As reported by the Mail, the data shows significant volatility in these numbers; while arrivals dropped to 75,000 in the final year of free movement, they peaked at an average of more than 270,000 per year in the two years immediately preceding the vote.
Nigel Farage of Reform UK has characterized these potential policy shifts as a "Brexit betrayal," arguing that opening borders to nearly half a billion people would leave the UK government with no mechanism to control who enters the country . The political friction centers on whether the Labour leadership is prioritizing trade access over the public's concerns regarding immigration levels.
Emmanuel Macron's 'four freedoms' ultimatum to Andy Burnham
The prospect of a closer relationship with Brussels comes with strict conditions from the French presidency. Whitehall sources told the Mail that President Emmanuel Macron has explicitly warned Andy Burnham that Britain must accept the "four freedoms"—the unrestricted movement of goods, services, capital, and people—to rejoin the single market or become a full member of the EU again.
This ultimatum suggests that the EU is unlikely to grant a "cherry-picked" arrangement where the UK enjoys trade benefits without accepting open borders. According to the report, President Emmanuel Macron made it clear last month that free movement is a non-negotiable prerequisite for a significantly closer trading relationship with Brussels.
Beyond borders: The loss of the Thatcher rebate and the Euro
The debate over re-entry extends beyond migration to fundamental economic sovereignty. Experts cited in the report warn that rejoining the EU would likely require the UK to eventually adopt the euro and would result in the loss of the annual budget rebate originally negotiated by Margaret Thatcher. These financial concessions represent a significant shift in the UK's fiscal relationship with Europe.
However, some ministers within the current government believe the political landscape has shifted since 2016. They argue that the current wave of non-EU migration is more controversial than the prospect of EU free movement, and that the benefit of restoring the right for British citizens to live and work across the EU could outweigh the domestic political risks.
Why Romania and Bulgaria remain focal points for the Centre for Migration
The Centre for Migration has flagged specific risks associated with a return to freedom of movement, noting that a spike in migration would likely be most pronounced from countries such as Romania and Bulgaria. The think tank warns that this would reverse severl years of net negative migration from Europe, potentially overwhelming the UK's infrastructure if not accompanied by comprehensive labour market reform.
Several critical questions remain unanswered regarding the implementation of such a move. It is currently unclear whether the Labour government would commit to a second referendum before rejoining the EU, or if they would attempt to navigate a customs union agreement without a public vote. Furthermore, the source does not provide a response from the Labour party regarding the specific 213,000-migrant projection provided by Reform UK.
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