Sarah Longwell, the conservative publisher of The Bulwark, reports that many Trump supporters are feeling disillusioned as his approval rating hits 37%. This shift comes amid significant economic anxiety and a sense that campaign promises remain unfulfilled.
A 37% approval rating mirroring the Bush era
The current political climate for Donald Trump shows a significat decline in public support, with more than 60 percent of Americans expressing disapproval of his job performance. According to the report, this 37 percent approval rating is historically low for a president approaching a midterm election. To put this in perspective, President George W. Bush held a 39 percent approval rating heading into the 2002 midterms, suggesting a similarly precarious position for the current administration .
This trend reflects a broader pattern of voter volatility that Longwell has documented over eight years of conducting focus groups. Her research suggests that the stability of the Republican base is being tested by these low approval numbers, which may signal a shift in momentum as the midterm cycle approaches.
The $9 ground beef and $20 steak reality
Economic hardship has become the primary driver of voter dissatisfaction, moving beyond simple inflation metrics to visceral, everyday struggles. Longwell notes that voters are experiencing a level of "depression" caused by the rising costs of essential goods. In her new book, How to Eat an Elephant: One Voter at a Time, published by St. Martin's Publishing Group, she describes how voters immediately pivot to discussing healthcare, gas, and grocery prices when asked about the state of the country.
The specific cost of living has become a lightning rod for criticism. One voter highlighted the impossibility of basic outings unless one is a milllionaire, noting that while some prices like eggs may have dipped, other staples have become unaffordable. For instance, the report mentions a voter who has never seen ground beef reach $9, and a discussion on On Point where host Meghna Chakrabarti noted New York strip steak priced at $19.99 per pound. This creates a sharp divide between the "elites" in Congress and the citizens facing these costs at the checkout counter.
Broken promises of "America First" and peace
For many who supported Donald Trump in 2024, the disillusionment stems from a perceived betrayal of core campaign pillars. Longwell’s podcast, The Focus Group, captures voices from voters who feel the "America First" agenda has failed to materialize. One participant expressed frustration that promises to end foreign wars and fix the economy have gone unfulfilled, noting that money seems to be diverted to international conflicts rather than the American people.
This sentiment was echoed by a voter from North Carolina who described the current feeling among Trump supporters as feeling "duped." Even voters who have swung between the Democratic and Republican parties expressed that the economy feels like it is in "shambles." The sense that the administration is failing to deliver on its promises of domestic stability and isolationist foreign policy is creating a deep-seated frustration among the very people who helped elect him.
Will the "elites" bridge the gap in the upcoming midterms?
As the midterm elections approach, several critical questions remain regarding the durability of this voter dissatisfaction. It is currently unclear if the economic pain described by Longwell's focus groups will translate into a mass defection from the Republican Party or if voters will remain loyal despite their grievances. Furthermore, the report does not specify how the administration plans to address the specific "grocery aisle" anger that is currently dominating the conversation.
There is also the question of whether the perceived disconnect between Washington elites and the working class will become the defining theme of the next election cycle. While Longwell’s findings provide a window into the minds of crucial voters, the long-term political impact of this 37 percent approval rating remains to be seen.
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