A new report from the Policy Exchange think tank, based on government Longitudinal Education Outcomes (LEO) data, finds that half of UK graduates earn below the national median wage five years after leaving university. The analysis covers roughly 300,000 individuals who graduated in 2017 and examines their earnings in 2022/23. It also shows that 11% of graduates earned less than £24,000, while only 57% were in full-time work 15 months after graduation.

The £35,000 Barrier: Half of 2017 Graduates Below National Median

According to the Policy Exchange report, at least 50% of graduates from the 2017 cohort earned less than £35,000 in 2023 — the national median wage for full-time workers of all ages that year. That figure has since risen to £39,000 in 2026, meaning the gap may be even wider for recent cohorts. The report argues this is evidence of a “wholesale collapse” in the so-called university premium, the extra lifetime income graduates typically earn compared to non-graduates. The findings echo a broader trend: after the UK government removed student number caps around a decade ago , universities expanded rapidly, often in low-cost subjects, while academic standards slipped, as reflected in the doubling of First-class degrees from 13% to 30% over 18 years.

11% Earned Below the National Living Wage Threshold

The report highlights that 11% of graduates — roughly 33,000 individuals — earned less than £24,000 in 2023, an amount that now equals the government’s National Living Wage for workers over 21. This group, the analysis suggests, would have been better off financially not attending university, given the typical student debt burden of £50,000. Shadow Education Secretary Laura Trott, quoted in the report, said: “Too many young people have been pushed into courses that leave them with large debts, limited teaching time and poor employment prospects.” The data also shows that at least a third of graduates are not in graduate-level jobs, further undermining the promise of a degree as a ticket to a middle-class career.

Subjects That Pay and Those That Don't: Sociology vs. Medicine

The report identifies sharp disparities by field of study. Lowest-earning subjects include sociology, creative arts, English, sports sccience, psychology and performing arts. At the other end, medicine, dentistry and economics produce the highest-earning graduates. This divide, according to Policy Exchange, is a direct result of “mass expansion and marketisation” — universities over-recruited in cheap-to-run subjects to maximise tuition fee income, often lowering entry standards. Neil O’Brien, Shadow Minister for Policy Renewal , said many young people are being “lured into debt-trap degrees that won’t help them get ahead.” The report calls for a 30% reduction in university places, a cap on top marks, and tougher entry standards, including a national test for applicants who fail to achieve at least CCC at A-Level.

Political Fallout: ‘Debt-Trap Degrees’ and Calls for a 30% Cut in Places

The report has drawn sharp responses from politicians across the spectrum. Suella Braverman, Reform’s Education spokesman , said the system is “rigged” and that young people have been “sold a lie about university.” Labour life peer Lord Maurice Glasman blamed “mass expansion and marketisation” for soaring numbers and collapsed standards, while also noting that construction and manufacturing industries have been starved of skilled labour. the authors — from the centre-right think tank Policy Exchange — argue that reducing places by 30% would restore value to degrees.. However, the report does not address potential unintended consequences, such as limiting social mobility or leaving demand for vocational training unmet. The debate now shifts to whether any government will take the politically risky step of capping university admissions.